Tracking fuel among US airlines and their fleets

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You have read it here several times: fuel is ~45% of operating costs for US airlines. Hence, the race to update fleets to chase the latest in engine technologies, along with wingtips and any other fuel-saving ideas.

The number for 1Q25 is 47%, as shown in the model below. The model is concise, comprising only four pages, and provides an excellent overview of fuel burn by airline and aircraft type. The model focuses on single-aisles as this is the industry bedrock.

Page one shows that Boeing’s 737 family has a lower fuel burn than the Airbus

A320 family. This is a critical insight – airlines operate a range of each family. The attention the A321neo attracts for its impressive range and fuel burn combination is well-deserved. But it is equally important to realize that it is a small part of the fleet.
Page two looks at pilot costs. Along with fuel, pilot costs are the two primary operational costs. US pilots have won significant wage concessions over the past year, and the impact is now being felt. Fortunately for the airlines, fuel costs have decreased, helping to alleviate the effect. However, as we know, fuel costs will rise again, and airlines cannot recoup the wage increases they have made. The US airlines are more sensitive than ever to fuel price spikes. And you know the next one is a short crisis away.
Page three shows fuel burn across the duopoly. The competing models are very close, demonstrating the effectiveness of the duopoly in driving competition. It also illustrates the difficulty of breaking into the duopoly. Notice how each generation competes closely. But the newest models show greater “space” between them. This is especially true with the MAX 9 compared to the A321neo. The MAX 10 is needed!
Page four displays the costs of US airlines, and here you can see the impact of pilots’ and fuel costs. Select from the airlines on the menu to see how each one’s profile varies. For example, the most fuel-efficient airline is Frontier. Its fuel cost is 42% which is considerably better than the rest.