Tracking the Airbus rate acceleration

Airbus aims to raise its production and delivery rates this year. As of April 2025, Airbus is targeting the delivery of 820 commercial aircraft for the year, marking a 7% increase from the 766 aircraft delivered in 2024. First Quarter 2025 Performance In the first quarter of 2025, Airbus delivered 136 aircraft to 49 customers. Notably, 71 aircraft were delivered in March alone, indicating a significant uptick in monthly deliveries. Single-aisle aircraft, particularly the A320 and A321 models, comprised approximately 90% of these deliveries. Production Rates and Future Targets Airbus is working to increase production rates across its aircraft families: A320 Family: By 2027, the company aims to produce 75 aircraft per month, up from the current rate 52. A350 Family: Efforts are underway to boost production to eight aircraft per month in 2025, with a target of ten per month by 2026, contingent on supply chain improvements. Supply Chain Challenges Airbus faces supply chain disruptions despite these ambitious targets, particularly with engine suppliers like CFM. The situation at CFM is complicated by Boeing's resurgence, whose demand for engines for its MAX program is rising again. Moreover, COMAC plans higher delivery rates for its C919 program, which also requires CFM engines. To mitigate against these issues, Airbus has provided its suppliers with financial and human resources support. Tracking Rates What does the Airbus rate increase look like? The chart lists production (using first flight as a production proxy) and deliveries. [caption id="attachment_90835" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] What is interesting is that the production increases as the deliveries soften. While this might typically be a concern, with the Chinese decision to slow Boeing deliveries, Chinese customers are likely to cause deliveries to rise above expected rates. Airbus can support higher rates. A new FAL in Tououlse that formerly produced A380s is now producing A321s. The A321 is the most demanded single-aisle model, and Airbus now delivers these aircraft from all four of its FALs. The following chart illustrates the commercial rates these FALs are generating. [caption id="attachment_90836" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AviationFlights.com[/caption] Please use our tracking model to dive deeper into Airbus production and deliveries. The model is interactive -select a year and it expands into months and then days. Our model tracks the production and delivery of the currently produced models. The charts look relatively flat until 2016, as prior periods were focused on the A320ceo family. Page two of our model identifies how important Chinese customers are for Airbus. Chinese airlines and lessors might slow Boeing deliveries, but they might accelerate Airbus deliveries to offset Boeing's capacity loss. All operators globally are searching for capacity and, ideally, new aircraft. Airbus is, therefore, best placed to benefit from any Boeing/China impasse. Airbus has the production capacity, and China has the demand. Boeing will likely see a small impact from Chinese customers as Indian customers continue to step into delivery slots, as they have done over the past several years. The Indian operators might also get slightly better pricing. Conclusions While the Trump Tariffs roil markets in the short term, we are confident that markets will adjust. They always do, and as Chian leans away from Boeing, Airbus, and COMAC benefits, those benefits will face constraints from CFM. But Pratt & Whitney could see opportunities from this.

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