What Boeing Outproducing Airbus in August Portends?

After more than half a decade with Airbus outproducing Boeing each month, the tables turned in August 2026. Boeing first flights in August totaled 63 aircraft compared with only 58 for Airbus. The last time this happened with in September 2019, prior to the MAX crisis. Boeing Production is Rising Boeing's 63 first flights in August included 47 737 MAX, nine 787s, two 767 freighters, two KC-46 tankers, two 777 Freighters and one P8 military variant of the 737NG. With production constraints relaxed at Boeing, 737 MAX production is returning to higher levels as the company’s quality metrics remain positive. The next upward step to 52 per month is likely late this year or early in 2027. Boeing production for 2026 is shown in the following table by model for each month. [caption id="attachment_197106" align="aligncenter" width="640"] source: AirInsight[/caption] The following chart shows the increasing production rates at Boeing through 2026, as the ramp-up appears to be moving forward. The forthcoming certification of the MAX 10 and the new North line, the 4th production line for the MAX in Everett, should enable Boeing to maintain higher production rates through the remainder of 2026 as MAX rates stabilize at 47 per month. Boeing is trending up and deliveries, which should soon be increasing with the certification of the MAX 7 and pending certifications of the MAX 10 and 777-9. [caption id="attachment_197107" align="aligncenter" width="640"] source:AirInsight[/caption] Airbus Production Falls in August Airbus, by contrast, produced only 58 aircraft in August, after producing 67 aircraft in July. Our tracker shows that Airbus completed 10 A220-300s, 16 A320neo, 23 A321neo, 5 A321XLRs, 2 A330-900s, 1 A350-900, and 1 A350-1000. August is traditionally a low month for output at Airbus, given that August is the traditional month for vacations. In addition, a strike at Airbus Spanish facilities could be impacting production, as last week Airbus workers walked off after a contract was rejected, following a 22 day strike in July. The facility produces components for A320, A330 and A350 families, critical for Airbus to meet its goal of 870 deliveries in 2025 as parts inventories are not being replenished during the strike. Will Airbus Meet its Guidance in 2026? Through 8 months, Airbus has delivered 469 aircraft and needs to average 99 aircraft per month to meet its annual guidance. The following table shows Airbus production for 2026. It is notable that the company has not been able to produce at that level during 2026. [caption id="attachment_197108" align="aligncenter" width="640"] source: AirInsight[/caption] Airbus production was increasing, but peaked in July rather than continuing to increase, which the company needs to reach its goal. The following chart shows Airbus deliveries in 2026, based on delivery flight data. [caption id="attachment_197109" align="aligncenter" width="640"] source: AirInsight[/caption] Our analytics show that Airbus delivered 469 aircraft through August, 2026, with another 35 aircraft built and in inventory, awaiting delivery. Airbus had a poor start to the year, with a terrible January and February in deliveries. Deliveries picked up through June, but then dropped again in July and August. Unless Airbus can turn around that trend to average 99 deliveries per month for the remaining four months, it will fall short of its target. While the company has historically executed a tremendous year-end push to deliver aircraft each December, historically its highest delivery month, this year that task looks daunting. We have reduced our forecast 2026 deliveries to between 793 and 852 aircraft, with an expected value of 822, well under the 870 guidance. The Bottom Line In the last few months, the duopoly players have been moving in opposite directions - with Boeing rising and Airbus falling. While we expect Airbus to finally reach its goal of rate 75 for the A320neo family, that goal has now slipped several years to the right. With Boeing ramping production and introducing a new production line, we expect MAX production to increase once the MAX 10 is certified, which is still expected before the end of the year. Combine that with the pending certification of the 777-9, and Boeing will be able to significantly increase its output and cash flow. Meanwhile, supply chain issues have resulted in minimal production for Airbus flagship A350, with only 2 aircraft produced in August. The planned ramp-ups for this aircraft have also been moving to the right as supply chain issues continue to plague the company. Very few in the industry would have expected Boeing to overtake Airbus in production, even in the traditional vacation month for Europeans. The trend lines are now moving in opposite directions, which Airbus needs to quickly arrest and reverse. Duopolies tend to move toward parity, and Boeing is putting safety issues behind it while Airbus inability to produce aircraft fast enough is becoming problematic. It will be interesting to see whether Airbus can meet its planned delivery skyline in the fourth quarter 2026 and early 2027. We would bet against it, given the track record under Guillaume Faury.

No results