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As we move into Fall, you expect to see air travel volumes soften. TSA and flight tracking data show that the market is actually robust.
Here are some interesting items.
- We are back to an average of 104 passengers per flight, following a drop to 99 in September.
- The US airline industry has been disciplined in controlling capacity. January 2019 is the base period. We are comfortably above that period, and the relatively tight difference between the number of flights and traffic demonstrates industry discipline.
- Here we can see the relative performance from the last pre-pandemic year (2019) through October 20, 2025. The latest month is incomplete and consequently appears lower. However, looking at the trend across the rest of 2025, we can see a close match to last year. This implies there hasn’t been much traffic growth. That, in turn, raises several questions worth considering. 2025 looks like it will be an OK year. But only OK, so far.
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