We have updated our Indian airline traffic model.
Overall, the market seems to have slowed through May 2019. This is seen in the load factor decline from 84.6% last year to 81.3% this year. Based on current trends, the loss of Jet may see the market have fewer flights as the remaining airlines try to fill the gap. This is not necessarily a bad thing as the remaining airlines should see better loads at better price points. The traffic numbers should get close to last year’s 138m. While overall 2019 YTD shows the average Indian domestic flight with 138 passengers this is not evenly distributed. AirAsia and GoAir are doing far better. IndiGo and Air India not so much.