Mea Culpa – we went back to check the data.  It was inaccurate.

Here is the updated, checked, and more plausible chart.

The Airbus transactions are driven by the Virgin America fleet switching to Alaska.  Boeing’s numbers are a tad lower for 2018 YTD March. The other primary OEMs also show slight declines YTD.  Bombardier and Sukhoi show relatively large declines YTD.  It would seem that through the first quarter the supercycle remains on track.

Here are the single-aisle transactions 1Q18.

As we can see Boeing‘s MAX is moving out the Renton plant a bit faster than the A320neo and A321neo.  The engine issue is clearly a damper for Airbus which should be way ahead.

In terms of widebody transactions, we have this chart.

The 777-300ER is down noticeably basis the 787-8.  But the 787-9 market is humming. Airbus and Boeing delivered two new models this period, the A350-1000 and 787-10.  The A350-900 market is also humming but is at half the level of the 787-9.  FAL capacity is clearly a key advantage.  Airbus has it in single aisles and Boeing has it with the 787.

 

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Addison Schonland
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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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