Premium #238 – How Will Aviation Keep Up with Technological Change?

Let’s take a look at what flying could be like 20 years from now. Will the airport, aircraft, systems, and infrastructure be ready for an improved experience? It is 20 years from now. What might the travel experience be? You no longer own a car, as Uber-Hertz will dispatch a self-driving vehicle to pick you up on demand for your trips anywhere at any time. Ground travel is easier, albeit less exciting than driving your own car. Your own car is now relegated to back roads during peak freeway rush hours, which excludes people-driven vehicles. Of course, on route in the driver-less vehicle you can work, catch up on the news, and connect via large monitors to video conferences or other events. Working during a commute is the latest fashion in places such as New York, where even self-driving vehicles can’t break the gridlock resulting from population growth and roads that can’t accommodate them. So while you work, let’s review how you reserved your flight. Reserving a Flight There used to be all sorts of apps available for reserving a flight. But then the airlines discovered that they could offer their inventory in unconventional means - so search Google for a flight and buy it on Amazon. All reservations will be made via the airline’s direct connection technology to their own reservation systems, slashing booking fees. The miracle of the GDS system in the 1960s is replaced by collaboration technologies in the next evolution of the internet. Consolidating schedules are no longer difficult for AI apps that are surrogate travel agents, and options are tailored for individual users based on their preferences. We have entered the “market of one” world in which massive databases, including frequent flyer databases, can pinpoint your history, preferences, and even special meals needs. Upon Reaching the Airport The first event is check-in and dropping a bag. This is all automated, and your permanent baggage tag, tied to your frequent flyer number, will be your luggage tag. SkyCaps out front are replaced by robotic systems that read you ticket via proximity to your smartphone, and read your permanent baggage tag, and deposit it on the conveyor system. Computer systems guide the bag to its destination based on a glyph code on the tag, which ties to your ID and your reservation. But don’t lose that permanent bag tag, which contains a chip, that will send the information to the airport systems to ensure your bag gets to the destination in your reservation via the correct flight. With that system, airlines will know where a bag is at all times, and which bags have, and haven’t, been loaded on an airplane. And if you don’t already have a permanent tag, a 3-D printer will manufacture one for you on the spot. Mobile check-in and seat selection are commonplace, as is the replacement of printed boarding passes. The evolution of the smartphone into wearable technology may change the display - as it is hard to utilize intelligent glasses as a boarding pass. The key is whether the projection bracelets that display the boarding pass on your forearm will be able to be read by the ancient TSA technology, as government still can’t keep up with the rapidly changing marketplace. While some who don’t want to wear a bracelet, instead simply wearing the ring or watch that contains telephone technology and looking at the screen through glasses, while commanding the phone via voice, may be able to project the image from their glasses as an alternative. For those in TSA PreCheck, which by then includes the vast majority of travelers, since vetting is coordinated between the NSA and other agencies via Homeland Security to weed out potential terrorists, criminals, or individuals who might behave differently or have unusual attitudes. You ask how would they know? Perhaps by listening to those wearable phones, or listening into to living room conversations through the voice activated television remotes. The Internet of Things means big brother can and will be watching to see if any strange activity goes on in your household. Sounds like the paranoia we shared when I was living behind the Iron Curtain in the 1960s will return again for those of us who like privacy. Hand luggage is still scanned, liquids are still prohibited through security and metal detectors still scan for knives and metal guns, although plastic 3D printed weapons will be prevalent and cheap to produce. But since government will monitor downloads of plans for weapons, it would be unlikely you would be included in this line anyway, second amendment rights notwithstanding. The non-pre-check line, which will be reserved for questionable peopel, could be like going through customs in a third world country, in which everything is searched. This might take a while, and you definitely don’t want to be on this list. The world will bifurcate into easy access and painful access - those that can travel relatively freely and those who cannot. Of course, the Uber-Hertz car might not even bring a terrorist to the airport in the first place, at least not without notifying the authorities, who would be waiting, since they will also be tied into the dreaded terrorist watch list. At the Gate OK, now to the gate. To save time, airlines turn airplanes sideways and use jetways for front and back doors, like they did in the late 1950s before deciding that the footprint was too large, and needed to pack more aircraft into the same footprint. Today, it is all about throughput and asset utilization. Getting people on and off airplanes quickly, made possible by electronic taxi systems on the wheels, increases the efficiency of airline operations and saves money for airlines. But requiring two jetways instead of one increases the footprint of the airport, meaning that mile you just walked might turn into a mile and a quarter from where you started, with a train ride in between. If you’ve ever transferred from T2 to F15 in Atlanta with a 25 minute connection, you already know the experience. Airports will get bigger, both with traffic doubling every 15 years and the need for larger gates for what will be much different looking aircraft. The Aircraft So we’re finally at the airplane. Is this where the big changes will occur? The answer is definitely, but the question is when, and what the design will be? Airbus talks about its concept plane for the 2050 time frame, but certainly some radical innovations will occur before then. There are all sorts of innovative designs being considered for new aircraft - including double-bubble fuselages, blended wing bodies, trans sonic truss-braced wings, and hybrid wing body designs, and even wide fuselage conventional narrow-bodies. All of them look futuristic, and some look something akin to a stealth bomber - very sexy. But the flying experience will be quite different. The double bubble fuselage is somewhat more conventional in design than a blended wing body, but still provides added capacity, as shown below. This is a very wide body aircraft. Boeing’s blended wing concept, shown in early form here, illustrates the wide but short cabin and how a new technology aircraft might look. This design, from Lockheed Martin, is a hybrid wing body, that is similar to a blended wing design, with potential military as well as civil applications. Historically, these new designs aren’t the first blended wing body concepts. In 1924, the Westland Dreadnought was the first to try the concept. Unfortunately, it crashed on its first flight, killing the test pilot. Other potential new designs include Boeing’s truss-braced wing, shown below. This will make Cessna 172 pilots feel right at home in a more conventional fuselage. The Benefits A blended wing aircraft should deliver another 10% in fuel efficiency and reduce noise substantially, making these designs more environmentally friendly. By 2036 we’ll have seen another 10-15% improvement in engines, so a 25% reduction in fuel consumption is possible for new technology designs. The significant improvement in economics will result in airlines replacing existing technology with new technology aircraft. But with rapidly advancing technology, the economic life for a new aircraft is projected to be 20 instead of 30 years. New Technologies New technologies will be introduced for these new aircraft, from adaptive surfaces that replace ailerons and flaps with bendable wings to laminar flow designs that make the aircraft “slicker” as it slices through the air. Engine technologies will continue to improve with respect to fuel consumption and noise, and the evolution of the geared turbofan will drive the next generation of aircraft engines. On Board Getting on board, the first thing you notice is the cabin width - which is much wider than today’s cabins. Even the A380 cabin isn’t 12 abreast, but these new airplanes, even smaller ones that seat 150 passengers, will be that wide. They just won’t have many rows. This is because the fuselage and wings are blended together, and some passengers will be sitting in places that would be on top of the wing in conventional aircraft. For folks like me, who like window seats, that’s not a good thing, as they will be few and far between, if windows don’t disappear altogether. Think shorter cabins with 12-15 seats across, and for some technologies, a structural dividing wall in the middle. You can choose between Left Twix or Right Twix? These innovative designs will be lighter, enabling more range and fuel efficiency. Combining that with new materials technology will change not only the look and feel of the aircraft, but also its performance. Transparent Aluminum, as shown in the Star Trek IV motion picture will be a reality and commercially available (Aluminum Oxynitride). But are we ready for a see-through floor in an airplane? Perhaps not, but panels of transparent aluminum could potentially replace glass or poly-carbonate windows on a fuselage. Entire sections of an aircraft could be transparent, with electrochromic window shades added for the sunshine at FL510. The higher altitude is necessary, because with more traffic, we’ll need more airspace. The added cabin width and increased floor space enables new interior designs. So how will seats evolve? If we extrapolate the current trends, premium classes will have mini-apartments, and coach seat pitch will be the equivalent to standing with a small stool to lean on. While we don’t really expect those extremes, as there are limits to linear extrapolation of today’s trends, the passenger experience will change. In first class, the current suites will become more private, and other than in boarding and deplaning, you may never see who is next to you during the flight. Business class is continuing to become the first class of the prior generation - so each time there is an enhancement, the premium passengers will experience it. Even on small aircraft, like the E2 Jets from Embraer, staggered seating permits a true first class sleeper experience, even on a regional aircraft. With continuing societal bifurcation into haves and have-nots, the differential in service will be noticeable. For price sensitive travelers in economy, seat pitch will narrow to 29 inches, about the smallest one can get and still retain some modicum of comfort with a slim-line seat. Seats will continue to evolve, with higher and thinner structures to enable more legroom vertically, if not horizontally. We may even see bunk beds or pods in premium economy, where passengers are stacked on top of each other, much like the crew accommodations on the A380 and other long-haul aircraft. For those flights, a premium is paid for a sleeper berth, much like on a Pullman train. Who gets the upper berth, and making those seats crash-worthy are challenges that could be overcome to offer new products for economy travelers. A potential drawback to the wide cabin is the ability to exit the aircraft in an emergency. We need to devise new ways to exit the aircraft quickly - as without window exits, emergency doors may be needed. But these are problems that can be solved. Entertainment and Communications One of the key impacts in all classes will be communications. Bandwidth continues to increase dramatically. 20 years ago, we were in dial-up mode. Twenty years from now, we’ll wonder how we ever got along with slow 100mbps speeds. This communication technology can be connected wirelessly to wearable devices, which you can project onto the seat-back in front of you. Your boarding pass will also be your password to enter the entertainment libraries the airlines will amass in the cloud, and your selection may be from “any movie ever made in any language” for your viewing pleasure. Without windows for much of the cabin, those like me that like to look outside may have the option to view live camera footage of what’s around the airplane, likely with the ability to zoom in and out and really have a closer look at where we are. Will cloud piercing technologies from the military translate into civilian applications on aircraft? We don’t know, but it is feasible. It is always exciting to watch an approach and landing - and with new technology cameras - this will be possible with much greater clarity than we’ve seen with cockpit cameras today. An application could provide commentary on historic places, natural wonders, famous people, or other local history as one moves around the country or world - a true travel education in real time. Or perhaps even take you there through Virtual Reality headsets, already being tested by Qantas. Entertainment will change as rapidly as computing technology, which means a new generation every three years. New aircraft will feature very high speed wireless communications and enable passengers to utilize their own devices, rather than building in certified devices that will see rapid obsolescence. Battery chargers, rather than built in systems, may be the norm in the future. The Cockpit Just as we have self-driving cars, the new technology aircraft will have redundant autopilots and be, to a larger degree, self-driven. Single pilot operation, with lead flight attendants trained as back-ups in the event of an emergency, could become commonplace - and a solution to the pilot shortage. Avionics will communicate not only to air traffic control, but between planes, and computerized flight plans shared by air traffic control will result in more efficient routing and spacing of aircraft for landing, particularly at congested airports. With aircraft no longer needing the traditional ILS approach that puts aircraft in a straight line - as satellite navigation enables more direct routings, tremendous savings will result from fewer holding patterns and more efficient routing. The concept of an automated flight, which somewhat scary, relegates the pilot to the role of pushing buttons and monitoring in case something goes wrong. We’ve already seen the result of some airlines, whose policy is to let “Charlie” fly the airplane - namely Asiana and what’s been revealed about their procedures to nearly always let the autopilot fly the airplane after the accident in San Francisco. The challenge will be to have pilots well trained in what to do when it “hits the fan” and to be able to fly the airplane should it get into trouble. That’s an entirely different curriculum than we teach today, but perhaps more relevant to future technology. Landing and Deplaning When the autopilot brings in the airplane, it will electronically taxi to the gate, and you will deplane via jetway to the terminal. Then it is down to baggage claim to find the bag that you checked on the alphabetical baggage returns. But why have everyone crowded around a single baggage claim, when you can have the computer system read the name and send it to one of multiple possible destinations. This could ease congestion, and make it easier for passengers to quickly pick-up their bags, and exit to awaiting cars, positioned near the door associated with your namet. The future looks to be quite interesting. We’d like to hear your thoughts on how travel will be in 2035, and look forward to your comments.

US Flight Planner	Airbus vs Boeing
US Airline Schedule Performance	Daily Production & Deliveries

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