“Growth Is Definitely There In Africa”

In the recently published market forecasts of all three OEMs, two regions are of particular interest given recent events: the Middle East and Africa. The former is in the spotlight as tensions around Iran continue, while the latter is consistently the smallest market but with huge growth potential. AirInsight sat down at last week’s Farnborough Airshow with Gabriel Semelas, President of Airbus in Africa and the Middle East, to go a bit further inside developments and the numbers in the latest Global Market Forecast (GMF). In the GMF, which was released on July 8, Airbus sees demand in the Middle East for 3.490 airliners in the next 20 years. That’s down from 3.790 in the 2025 forecast. By comparison, Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) guides 2.995 deliveries through 2045, up from 2.950 year-over-year. Embraer’s Market Outlook for regional jets up to 150 seats sees demand for 330 aircraft, down from 350. Looking at Africa, the Airbus GMF guides 1.640 aircraft versus 1.490 last year, with a slightly higher share of wide bodies up by one percentage point to 20 percent. Boeing has 1.165 aircraft in the latest CMO, down from 1.205 aircraft. Embraer guides 370 small regional jets versus 380 last year. Middle East Looking at the Middle East first, all airframers have said that no airline has requested cancellation or deferral of aircraft orders because of the tense geopolitical situation. Emirates President Sir Tim Clark stated during a media roundtable that he sticks to his strategy and delivery schedules. What is Airbus seeing? Gabriel Semelas says: “I support the words of Tim Clark. The Middle East continues to be one of the fastest-growing aviation markets around the world. Some of the comments made by (former IATA Director General) Willie Walsh at the AGM in June were that this is not a structural issue for the region in aviation. His prediction for the whole of 2026 is that there will be a dip of 11.4 percent in air traffic (RPK) compared to growth. Looking at what is happening in the region, this is not a big decrease in passenger traffic.” But mind you that IATA made these comments in June. Since then, the situation in the region has become more tense, with new hostilities between the US and Iran, now also in Yemen, and oil prices on the up again after they dropped in Maye/June. “Indeed, but I will not go into the politics we all see on the news. But for us, we kept delivering aircraft to all airlines in the region. We have the 25th A350-900 for Emirates here in Farnborough; we delivered an A350-1000 to Qatar Airways, and we delivered the first XLR to Saudia. We are in constant discussions with our customers, but the way they see the market is in the long term.” “This airshow, we announced a further six A350-1000s for Riyadh Air, while flynas announced its commitment for an additional 20 A321neos and five A330neos. They are all in the belief that what’s going on at the moment is temporary. It is a crisis, of course, an important crisis. You see the price of fuel and how that is affecting the operation of the airlines, but in the long run, they still see the growth and the potential of the market.” Africa As mentioned, Africa sees lower demand with all three OEMs. IATA expects traffic to grow this year by 10 percent, in line with last year. That’s the highest of all six regions in the world. Passenger capacity in Africa is set to grow by 7.7 percent this year, again leading all regions. But airlines in Africa are expected to make just a $0.1 billion net profit at a 2.5 percent EBIT margin. [caption id="attachment_196192" align="aligncenter" width="589"] Uganda Airlines Boeing order Farnborough 2026[/caption] In a release during the airshow week, ACC Aviation consultants and associate director Tristan Brouard highlighted a problem that is preventing the airline industry from growing. “Africa does not have a demand problem. It has a bankability problem. The opportunity is clear, but airlines must be able to demonstrate that their growth plans are financially sustainable, operationally credible and capable of meeting the requirements of lenders, investors and lessors”, according to Brouard. He said that lessors continue to apply risk premiums to African operators. Gabriel Semelas is aware of the problem. “Financing has been a problem in the past, and it depends on the country. More and more, banks and leasing companies are coming to Africa and are willing to enter the market. This gives easier access to financing, which allows airlines to acquire aircraft.” Double digits “The growth is definitely there; we see double digits coming from IATA. We see a need for around 1.500 aircraft coming into Africa. But the main challenge remains the infrastructure and connectivity within the continent. We see routes like Dakar to Nairobi where passengers have to go via Paris. That shouldn’t be happening; there should be a direct connection. That is what we are trying to do.” Airbus recently highlighted potential routes that could significantly improve connectivity across Africa. Africa is huge and multifaceted. You have the sub-Saharan countries in the North, stretching to the East. You have Ethiopia and its national carrier positioning itself for growth. And there is South Africa, which has struggled in recent years. In between are dozens of countries where aviation is lagging. In Farnborough, Uganda Airlines confirmed a Boeing order for eight aircraft to boost connectivity. Semelas sees Ethiopia as a big hub, thanks to Ethiopian Airlines. “But you also see aviation develop in South Africa. Last year, we opened a customer support centre in Johannesburg, intending to support all the airlines on the African continent. We want to be closer to them in terms of technical support, advice, and safety.” “Of course, the North of Africa is a very developed market. We recently delivered the first A350-900 to EgyptAir, while Air Algérie will take additional A330neo deliveries. It is a developing and strong market, and it is getting stronger.” Ticket prices With the average income of Africans low and ticket prices being high, not many can afford to fly. “The earnings volumes: when you get (the passenger) volumes, you get competition and that automatically should bring prices down. There is a growing middle class to which air travel is becoming increasingly accessible. Aviation will always grow with the evolution of the GDP. It depends on what country you look at in Africa, where growth will differ.”

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