Transactions through August

Here is our monthly update on the deals and transactions. Only Airbus is seeing a better year. Remember these transactions include previously owned aircraft. It's not new deliveries only. Airbus may be benefitting from A320neo deliveries as new engines come on stream. Next the single-aisle breakdown. We added the A220 to the Airbus mix. Airbus now has seven product options and Boeing has five. Boeing saw a big drop off in -800 deals. Even if we add the MAX8 numbers, Boeing's numbers in August are 42% down. These numbers seem to confirm the supply chain trouble. MAX9 numbers are up and now are higher than the -900. Looking at Airbus we note a sharp jump in the A223 - but it's an open question if that program meets its annual target. The A319 numbers are better this August YTD and may be an expression of the market demand for lift in this segment. The A320 saw more deals YTD this year. Adding the neo to the ceo, we see a 19% improvement year over year. The A320neo program remains only slightly ahead of the MAX8. As we have seen all year, the real success story at Airbus is the A321 program. Combining the ceo and neo as well as the -900 and MAX9, YTD we note that the A321 program has nearly 13 times as many transactions. As we have said before the NMA can't come fast enough. The MAX9 and MAX10 have a steep hill to climb to catch the A321. The A321 is the program Airbus should be touting all day. Next widebody transactions. This market is also showing interesting moves. The 777-300ER deals are down, as are 787-8. But the 787-9 is a star. The 787-10, an aircraft we have high regard for, is slowly moving. In the Airbus camp, the A330-200 continues to plow ahead. The A330-300 is having a slow year. For Airbus, the A330neo program can't get going quickly enough. The A350-900 is slightly behind YTD which is surprising since the program seems to be humming a lot better. Adding the A350-100 puts the overall program slightly ahead. But not as far ahead as we were expecting. Is Airbus still having supply chain challenges we haven't heard about? Nothing much to say about the A380. Next the regional market. As we saw in the first chart these two OEMs are having a tough year. Bombardier is down 53% YTD and Embraer is down 47% YTD. Bombardier has seen slower transactions on all models except the CRJ1000 - and that model is only up three on last year. Embraer's line is lead by the E175, and that program is down 52% YTD in transactions. Bombardier is rediscovering this market in many ways after the C Series. It's more aggressive marketing will take time to show in the numbers. Embraer is making a switch to the E@ and has a pending deal with Boeing holding things up. So both OEMs an be expected to have a slower year as there is a lot of "reset" going on. Overall, here are the big picture numbers. The ratios may look similar. But this masks something bigger as the next chart shows far better. This year is seeing a big slowdown in transactions. It looks like there is a story to be told as the year progresses.

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