Insight – Boeing’s NG and MAX Orders and Deliveries

A perennial question is why Boeing decided to stop identifying 737 models ordered and delivered. During the NG era, model breakdowns for orders and deliveries were nothing special. But with the arrival of the MAX that changed. A former Boeing employee shared that the reason was that orders were so skewed in favor of the MAX 8, with almost no interest in the MAX 7, the company decided not to break down the numbers. Oddly, the same thing happened at Airbus where the interest in the A319neo (the MAX 7's main competitor) was also, shall we say, anemic. But Airbus broke down the numbers. Looking at data from 2000 through the most (July) data published. The first charts list the NG orders and deliveries. The key item to notice is that the -800 is what the market wanted. It was the ideally sized 737. A secondary item to notice is that what was ordered is not necessarily what was delivered. This is partly because the period we are working with - history prior to 2000 impacts the difference between orders and deliveries. Next is the data on the MAX. The MAX 8 replaces the -800, MAX 9 replaces the -900/ER, and MAX 7 replaces the -700. Note in the orders pie that the generic MAX model is at 95% - Boeing does not break down model data. Recently we had two orders for the MAX 10 (Qatar Airways and Delta Airlines) that we separated out. In the MAX deliveries pie, the MAX 8 is at 90%, which is a lot more than we see for the -800. The MAX 8 is the "right-sized" model it appears. The MAX 7 and MAX 10 have yet to be certified and delivered. The hope is by year-end this will occur, but it is increasingly a long shot. Boeing has produced several of both and is waiting for delivery approval. We have been tracking MAX deliveries this year using several sources and this is what we show for MAX deliveries through August 19th. The MAX 8 comes in two versions, the regular model and the 8-200 as delivered to Ryanair Group (Ryanair, Buzz, Malta Air). Of the 230 delivered this year, only 15.6% are not a MAX 8. Looking at 80 MAX 9 deliveries we can see the interest in this model is focused. The following chart lists the top 25 MAX delivery customers. Alaska and Copa have gone all MAX 9 while United has focused on the MAX 9. The MAX 8 is the most popular model, by far, at this stage. When the MAX 10 deliveries start we expect to see changes. The MAX 7 looks to be a niche model, of importance to Southwest Airlines as a -700 replacement (but not on a one-for-one basis) and as a special markets aircraft at Allegiant. In summary, Boeing's selection of the size of the MAX 8 was spot on. Probably with a better market reaction than they expected. The larger models look to gain some traction, especially the MAX 10. The MAX 7 is probably less so, compared to the success of the -700. The market has bought into the upsizing argument among larger single aisles. We see support for this argument when looking at the Airbus deliveries, which are following the same pattern.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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