Insight: How big is the market for the Single-Aisle MoM?

The increasingly long-range capable MoM single-aisle aircraft is seen by many, including us, as disruptive.  But what is the extent of the market?  How much “commercial space” is there for such aircraft? How big is the market for the Single-Aisle MoM

?

We use the US market as a guide, deploying our T-100 model.  We utilize the T-100 International Market dataset, which contains international non-stop segment data reported by both U.S. and foreign air carriers, including carrier, origin, destination, aircraft type and service class for transported passengers, freight and mail, available capacity, scheduled departures, departures performed, aircraft hours, and load factor when at least one point of service is in the United States or one of its territories. International flight data is released 3 months after domestic data. Flights with both origin and destination in a foreign country are not included.

Starting in January 2018 through September 2022, we see the following chart. As expected, the market has seasonality—travel spikes from March to August. The chart breaks down travel volume by average flight distances.