Insight: How big is the market for the Single-Aisle MoM? |

The increasingly long-range capable MoM single-aisle aircraft is seen by many, including us, as disruptive. But what is the extent of the market? How much "commercial space" is there for such aircraft? How big is the market for the Single-Aisle MoM? We use the US market as a guide, deploying our T-100 model. We utilize the T-100 International Market dataset, which contains international non-stop segment data reported by both U.S. and foreign air carriers, including carrier, origin, destination, aircraft type and service class for transported passengers, freight and mail, available capacity, scheduled departures, departures performed, aircraft hours, and load factor when at least one point of service is in the United States or one of its territories. International flight data is released 3 months after domestic data. Flights with both origin and destination in a foreign country are not included. Starting in January 2018 through September 2022, we see the following chart. As expected, the market has seasonality—travel spikes from March to August. The chart breaks down travel volume by average flight distances. Let's look at the same pattern in percentage terms. The disruption from the pandemic is quite clear. International travel was crimped as borders closed. However, in percentage terms, long-range international travel grew during the pandemic. The chart above illustrates the volume was still millions of passengers, and the lower chart confirms that even during the pandemic, there was a double-digit market share for flights over 5,000 miles. The data suggests these "big picture" metrics: The US international air travel market sees approximately 20% of the traffic flying over 5,000 miles, and this segment is approximately 5 million passengers (2018 & 2019). The most recent data shows a post-pandemic recovery of about 18% of the market at over 5,000 miles with 3.5 million passengers. This segment has ranges too far for a single-aisle MoM. The only MoM aircraft in this segment would be the A330 and the smallest 787. The single-aisle MoM operates at about 4,000 miles. From the data, the 3,000-5000-mile segment looks like a historic ~30% share of traffic and ~5 million passengers for the US market. This segment has ~26% share and ~35 million passengers post-pandemic. This is the segment where the small twin aisles and large single aisles compete. Regardless of the pandemic, both upper-end flight ranges are recovering quickly to pre-pandemic levels. This guides to high inelastic demand for such travel. And that is a very good sign. In the >5,000 mile segment, the larger MoM aircraft competes with the big twins. The smaller MoM competes with several single-aisle models below 3,000 miles. This suggests crossover territory - for example, the 787-8 is the smallest Boeing twin-aisle that meets MoM size. Yet it can fly ranges over 8,000 miles. The following chart illustrates something very interesting, though. The Non-MoM aircraft carried most of the international traffic on routes over 3,000 miles. Typically these aircraft had a share well over 50% - in 2010, it was 53%, and by 2019 it had reached 57%. Then came the pandemic, and MoM share of the market shot up to 55% from below 50%. Non-MoM models recovered some of their share by 3Q22 but not all. Did the pandemic cause a permanent shift? Let's cut to the chase. Looking at the market through 3Q22, we note the following. The bottom left quadrant with the MoM label is the prime market for single-aisle MoM aircraft. The range peaks at 4,000 miles, and we assume a load of no more than 180 passengers per flight. The listed markets are predictable, and the confirmation is reassuring. Focusing on the lower left corner of the chart above, we get the following. These airlines operating to and from the US either operate single-aisle MoM aircraft or could be. Here's a separate data point that jumps out. The DoT categorizes markets by "Carrier Region" - the Carrier's Operation Region. When selecting a maximum range of 4,000 miles, almost across the board, that average seating fits right in with the single-aisle MoM. US airlines, except Southwest, have single-aisle MoM aircraft in service and more ordered. Our monthly transactions tracker, which started tracking aircraft transactions in January 2017, provides a useful guide on how airlines and lessors react to market opportunities for the single-aisle MoM. Between January 2017 and February 2023, there have been 2,176 transactions for aircraft in this category. Of these, ~19% have been for Boeing and the balance for Airbus. The following chart lists the models transacted. The majority are for A321s, and most are for the A321neo. Since transactions include both new deliveries and resales, it seems those operators that have an A321 hold on to them. There were even 59 757-200s traded - probably going to P2F programs. The size of the Mom Market is tough to estimate - but we are certain it is growing, as the following chart clearly shows. It seems reasonable to state the market has not peaked and is likely to be several times larger than the former 757 fleet size of ~1,000 aircraft. In conclusion, this next chart provides market size guidance. It will be big, and the plurality of the market will be the single-aisle MoM.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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