US airlines new aircraft delivery patterns

With OEM facing unstable supply chains and big airline customers pushing for deliveries, is there any pattern in the data that suggests priorities? What are airlines and OEMs focusing on? Looking at the US airlines, we see the following. [caption id="attachment_87416" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Through yesterday, Airbus delivered 121 airplanes to Boeing's 69. There's a well-understood Boeing volume story, and that story has gotten a bit worse over the past two months. Digging deeper, we see that the story is more than volume and reaffirms Boeing's MAX decisions. The chart below lists new deliveries from January 1 through November 6, 2024. [caption id="attachment_87417" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] US Airlines has moved from the A320neo to the A321neo, but there's a sizable demand for the MAX 8. It is interesting to see that there is no sympathetic move from MAX 8 to MAX 9. Is this just a US "thing"? Apparently, yes. [caption id="attachment_87418" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] The A320neo is doing well, particularly in India, where the MAX 8 also has a growing following. Another data point to pay attention to is the A220. It is proving popular in the US with various airlines, from Breeze to JetBlue and Delta. Outside the US, the A220 has support from airBaltic and Air France. The E2 has Porter, KLM, and Helvetic as significant customers. The "crossover" jet, like the E2 and A220, are niche products. This has been Boeing's contention all along. The niche is more extensive than ever because these small aircraft have far more range, enabling broader use. This flexibility makes them popular, but it is a niche market. Even as we see the A321NX power its way into the fleets of the Big Three, here's a data point that provides important insight: Is the A321NX as capable as it appears? From a freight standpoint, perhaps not. [caption id="attachment_87420" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Take a look at this, going a bit deeper. What the upper chart hints at is better demonstrated here. The A321, in either CEO or neo guise, is not an especially good freight carrier. Just to be clear, we only selected the passenger airlines here. [caption id="attachment_87422" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] This reaffirms what industry people repeatedly say—you can't replace the 757 easily. It is simply an excellent aircraft overall. The A321 may have better fuel burn, especially in the Neo version, but the A321neo can't beat the 757's payload and range. So, as US airlines add A321neo variants to their fleets, are they accomplishing everything they need? Maybe, but they are not going to get their A321neos to do what the old 757s were able to do. The A321neo is a compromise that works for now.

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