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Here’s an update on MAX deliveries through August 24, 2024.
- MAX deliveries are North American-focused, with Europe next (essentially Ryanair and its Maltese affiliate)
- The MAX 8-200 is an EU-focused airplane, with one example in India at Akasa.
- India has seen some pickup, benefiting from Chinese deliveries that did not happen. India now has more MAXs than China—who expected that?
- Boeing is whittling down its MAX inventory and successfully deploying these aircraft. New builds are going to well-established customers like Alaska, Southwest, American, and Ryanair.
The upper table illustrates how 2024 monthly deliveries vary. This variance appears primarily due to MAX 8s, as that is the inventory pool. The MAX 8-200s are specifically targeted, while the Akasa deal is odd, and the backstory is undoubtedly intriguing. The MAX9s are also likely focused, especially for Alaska and United.
The following tables demonstrate the concentration of MAX deliveries since January 2021.
Boeing’s MAX customer concentration is significantly higher than that of the Airbus A320neo family. This high concentration is not optimal; a broader customer base is optimal. This is why a startup like Akasa has benefited from delayed Chinese deliveries.
Boeing turned Chinese delays from a problem into a solution to win deals, as these delays allowed for quick delivery slots. Even if these deliveries were priced lower than the Chinese deals, Boeing has attracted new customers into relationships lasting 20 years or more. The longtail in spares and services should offset sharp pricing.
Established airlines (Turkish Airlines is a prime example with its move on Aeroflot A350s) that could exploit delivery slots were innovative in grabbing MAXs. Given today’s slower deliveries, the early movers are now at an advantage.
Boeing’s MAX program put the OEM under tremendous pressure. However, its sales team has done a great job moving aircraft, and they successfully exploited the supply chain disruption.
