The A321neo’s role in United Airlines’ sparkling year

United is ending a sparkling year. The doubling of its stock price this year reflects this. It was not obvious that the airline would have such a great year. After all, it is Boeing's biggest customer. With 150 MAX 10s on order, United has removed them from its fleet plan. The airline successfully pivoted to the A321 in a way few could have expected. After all, the A321 is the most in-demand single-aisle model. Even pre-owned A321neo models are snapped up. The Alaska Airlines fleet was retired and quickly found a new home at American Airlines. This chart illustrates how United has grown its fleet with new deliveries over several years. Its proclivity for Boeing is apparent. [caption id="attachment_89050" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] But so is the pivot to Airbus. How did United pull this off when A321 delivery slots are rarer than the latest Ferrari model? To further emphasize the impact of the A321, here is another chart listing United's deliveries by model. We have been watching this pivot for months. [caption id="attachment_89051" align="aligncenter" width="669"] AirInsight[/caption] Over only two years out of 12, the A321 accounts for nearly 10% of the airline's new deliveries. That is some data point. United's relationship with Airbus has a long and awkward history regarding the airline's A350 order. If United really wanted this model, it could have taken delivery years ago, but nothing has happened. Meanwhile, United ordered more 787s. The chatter is that these A350s are now set for delivery starting in 2030. For an order first placed in 2010? Color us skeptical. Then, United had to deal with the VHF radio issue on their A321s. Though not an Airbus problem, it impacted their aircraft. The pivot United undertook is nothing less than spectacular. This chart shows it. It lists A321neo variants delivered to North American operators, demonstrating the model's popularity. [caption id="attachment_89054" align="aligncenter" width="640"] 2024 12 26 09 13 37[/caption] United was late to the A321neo party. However, once it committed to the A321neo, it dominated quickly. Remember, this is an airline with 150 MAX 10s on order. Delta is another big A321 customer with MAX 10s on order. United, by 4Q24, is close to 45% of A321neo deliveries. This represents 38 deliveries, far behind the 86 MAX9s or 107 MAX 8s the airline has taken delivery of. Airbus appears to have encountered some obstacles to its delivery schedule, though. The following chart shows A321neo deliveries to United and the average delivery days, which is the difference between the first flight and delivery. November 2024 was especially trying. [caption id="attachment_89057" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] Here are the data for all A321neo deliveries, which provide context for United's experience. In late 2024, United experienced unusual delivery delays. It is unclear what these delays might have been. It could have been updating the VHF radios, but GTF engine deliveries and cabin fixture delays could have caused delays, too. [caption id="attachment_89058" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] The decision to pivot to the A321neo is significant. Airbus was thrilled to see an initial order for 70 A321neos grow by another 60 and be added to 50 A321XLRs also on order. That's 180 MoM aircraft while the MAX 10 order percolates. Based on United's history, might its MAX 10 order become like the mythical A350 order? Time will tell. We know with some certainty that the A321neo family's role at United has started to impact significantly this year and looks to grow even more in the next few years.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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