Analyzing 737 MAX deliveries and program recovery

Boeing's 737 MAX has been through the wringer more than once. The aircraft has tested customer loyalty and driven the supply chain up the wall. Based on a model that saw EIS some fifty years ago, the MAX may be a commercial model that will never be matched in terms of longevity. We undertook a short analysis of the MAX program's deliveries. Boeing does not break out model variants in orders or deliveries. The analysis requires data mining and may not precisely match Boeing's published information. Recovery Hints The table lists production and deliveries. Despite the program's challenges, Boeing delivered most of its production. The MAX 7 and MAX 10 stick out, and they are awaiting certification. The good news is that there are hundreds of MAX 10s on order. As of December 2024, Boeing had over 1,200 orders for the 737 MAX 10 variant. This accounts for approximately 19% of the total 737 MAX family orders. The bad news is that the MAX 7 must be certified first, and market response to this model has been disappointing. [caption id="attachment_90752" align="aligncenter" width="455"] AirInsight[/caption] The table above shows this, but the following chart illustrates the MAX program's situation more clearly. [caption id="attachment_90753" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] The MAX program is a family, but deliveries are overwhelmingly the -8. This suggests it is the ideal model the market wants. However, Airbus' best seller is the A321, which is larger and should compete with the MAX 10. Next, this chart looks at MAX deliveries and the average aircraft age, which is the number of days between the first flight and delivery. The fewer the days, the better the program's industrialization. On the Airbus single-aisle family, the average number of days this year is 23, compared to 201 at Boeing. [caption id="attachment_90754" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] The difference between the two competing single-aisle programs is vast; more details must be shown to help understand it. This table lays out what is happening. [caption id="attachment_90755" align="aligncenter" width="466"] AirInsight[/caption] Boeing typically delivers at a day rate similar to Airbus's. But some exceptions throw off the averages. Air India Express is taking MAXs intended for Chinese customers who have decided not to take delivery. These aircraft have been in inventory for several years. This table, therefore, presents an essential insight into Boeing's MAX program recovery. The recovery is doing better than most may realize. The recent news about the wing is a concern, but considering what Boeing has faced before, it is possibly a smaller challenge to overcome. Look at the orange curve in the chart above. Boeing took a hammering on the MAX program; in 2019, things looked great. Then, after the crashes and grounding, the program stalled severely. Just as it was recovering, along came the door loss on Alaska Airlines. Now we are in a recovery phase again. Program Concentration Risk We noted above how the program is MAX 8 "heavy." Here's another sign of program concentration. [caption id="attachment_90758" align="aligncenter" width="618"] AirInsight[/caption] These ten customers account for ~57% of all deliveries. Fortunately for Boeing, these customers are well-established airlines. However, the concentration does illustrate how narrow the bottom of the customer triangle is. Airbus has a much broader customer base, even if many of its customers are small airlines. Airbus has less market risk than Boeing. Market Risk MAX 7—This program has a thin order book. Most aircraft were ordered by Southwest Airlines, which is now quite a different company with new management. The new management has also decided to take a harsher line with Boeing, especially around the MAX 7. Boeing may have to sell the 25 MAX 7s produced to Allegiant at a discount if Southwest refuses them. Southwest can do this because they are so late. MAX 10 - This program will be built in Everett rather than Renton. The Boeing 737 MAX 10 was initially expected to enter service in 2020. However, as of April 2025, it has not yet been certified, resulting in a delay of approximately five years. Boeing completed the MAX 10's first flight on June 18, 2021, and has since conducted over 400 test flights, accumulating nearly 1,000 hours of flight time. The certification process has been prolonged due to increased scrutiny and regulatory requirements following previous issues with the MAX series. Boeing anticipates delivering the first MAX 10 in 2026. When these two models achieve EIS, Airbus could announce new aircraft, such as a stretched A220 that would compete with the MAX 8, and an A322 family to eclipse the MAX 10, and its own A321neo family. Good News and Bad News Bad news—always start with bad news, they say. Boeing is in a tough spot, with MAX delays throwing the company off its traditional new model rhythm. This bad news buys Airbus time to refine its future models. Timing, as always, is everything, particularly with products with a two-decade lifespan. Good news- This comes in sections. Boeing's production recovery is doing well, and may be better than most expected. Customers remained loyal, even though they were tested to distraction. Boeing could accelerate to its next model faster than Airbus if its X-66A proves to be a winning idea. Airbus does not have a testbed for its next airplane, but it surely has models being flown on computers. The recent Summit confirms this. Conclusion Boeing is struggling mightily to overcome its MAX fumbles. Its labor unrest seems settled, and this is a crucial issue. Management seems goal congruent, and there is little whispering in the market. Boeing prudently dismissed the hydrogen distraction, focusing on SAF. This, along with the X-66A, suggests Boeing will focus on its next single-aisle family, which will emerge from this combination. But Boeing isn't tied to this solution. Finally, Boeing is ideally placed to monitor the three BWB programs on the US West Coast. All three are variously being set up for sale. Boeing could swoop on the winner. This would hand it a colossal time recovery.

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