The 787-10 HGW: Boeing’s Big Opportunity

In 2022, Stan Deal spoke with The Seattle Times about a high-gross-weight (HGW) version of the 787-10. The -10 is a fascinating aircraft with lots of market potential. Boeing has a long history of continually refining its models. The 737 is the obvious poster child for this process. We now have a 737 that has the same capacity and range as the 707. In 1965, when the first 737 entered the market, nobody would have even imagined this was possible. 787-10's Big Belly The item that makes the -10 so interesting is its cargo capacity. Look at these charts. We are using United's fleet as an example. The upper chart looks at ASM/gallon of fuel. The lower chart tracks revenue ton-miles per gallon of fuel. The upper chart focuses on passenger traffic, while the lower chart examines total payload. This is a crucial difference for operators. [caption id="attachment_111339" align="aligncenter" width="1729"] US DOT T2; AirInsight[/caption] The 787-10 and 777-200ER are about equal in capabilities; the -10 appears to be the natural replacement of the -200ER. In the upper chart, the 787-9 appears to be the winner. The -10 offers compelling numbers, though. Both 787 models handily outclass the 777s. However, the business must also include belly cargo to get a complete picture. The lower chart illustrates that this is where the 787-10 excels. If you could make the -10 into an HGW or ER, then you would have a fantastic aircraft. Its much-improved structural weight compared to the older 777s is clear. The Competition and an Example The "natural" competitor to the 787-10 is the A350-900. These models compete in many markets. This table lists freight loads per flight from the U.S. Department of Transportation's T-100. The 787-9 and A350-900 have similar freight loads. The 787-10 carries significantly more freight. [caption id="attachment_111351" align="aligncenter" width="580"] US DOT T 100; AirInsight[/caption] Examining the freight data for a competing market reveals the following for the US-South Africa service. United and Delta compete vigorously. Taking the DOT average of a passenger's assumed weight, at 200 pounds, and adding the freight load, we arrive at a total payload number. [caption id="attachment_111356" align="aligncenter" width="580"] US DOT T-100; AirInsight[/caption] The data shows that freight traffic has dropped off, likely because imported costs from the US have risen as the local currency has weakened. The following chart demonstrates the decline in freight as a percentage of payload. [caption id="attachment_111357" align="aligncenter" width="580"] US DOT T-100;AirInsight[/caption] Notably, w with an examplee observe that United has utilized all its aircraft types in this market. The 787-10 didn't have the same payload because it likely exceeded the payload limit for the range. The 787-9 is United's optimal tool for the market. Examining competitive payloads reveals the following. Although Delta has been in the market longer, United quickly established a lead in freight operations. The need to capitalize on its freight advantage is likely why United experimented with various aircraft types to identify the optimal operation. [caption id="attachment_111358" align="aligncenter" width="580"] US DOT T-100; AirInsight[/caption] You can see why United would jump at a more capable 787-10 in this market. And this is just one example. Conclusion A 787-10 with more range would be a tremendous asset for operators. Its belly cargo capacity enables this aircraft to replace older 777s effectively and offer significantly better economics. Such a capability would force Airbus to react by enhancing the A359-900's abilities as well. The challenge for Airbus is its Rolls-Royce engines. The A350-900, equipped with the Trent XWB-84 EP engine, was certified by EASA in April 2025. The EP variant brings ~1% lower fuel consumption compared to the previous version. The A350-900 utilizes the Trent XWB-84 engines, each producing ~84,000 lbf of thrust, while the 787-9 uses the Trent 1000 TEN or GEnx-1B, each at ~74,000–76,000 lbf thrust. Relative to their MTOWs, the 787-9 enjoys a more favorable thrust-to-weight balance. The 787-9 is better optimized for balancing payload and fuel burn in the 6,500–7,500 nm range, making it highly efficient. The A350-900 can theoretically fly farther, but only by sacrificing payload on the most extended missions. This suggests that if, or when, Boeing offers an enhanced 787-10, Airbus will struggle to improve the A350-900 further. Airbus has already increased its MTOW by ~3 tonnes. Essentially, Airbus has already enhanced its A350-900. How much more can they extract from it to compete with an enhanced 787-10?

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