A330-900: Right Aircraft, Wrong Timing

Airbus A330-900 has been assessed as a sleeper. We concur that this aircraft offers significant value, not just in terms of range/payload/cost. It is versatile - nearly a MOM and can perform short-haul and long-haul missions. Its versatility is further evidenced by its use as an aerial tanker, just like the 767. The A330-900, the larger model, is the better seller. But the smaller model will serve as the airframe for the next Airbus tanker, so it's still on the list, unlike the A350-800. Here are the deliveries for the A330-300 and A330-900 through 2025. The A330-300 was a popular size, and it attracted orders. The -900 is the logical replacement as the -300s age out. [caption id="attachment_186701" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Airbus; AirInsight[/caption] The X-axis shows the key point: the A330-900 entered service just as the pandemic hit. Airlines couldn't fly international routes. Airlines had no money for new equipment. It was an awful time to launch a new long-haul aircraft. In addition to the timing, the A330-300s were performing well. The chart shows that many older models were still in the prime of their service. There was no pressure to replace them, especially after the pandemic. [caption id="attachment_186701" align="aligncenter" width="580"] OEMs; AirInsight[/caption] But there's more to this, because the widebody market has seen some disruptions. The following chart tracks Airbus (A330 and A350) and Boeing (777 and 787) deliveries. Essentially, competing models chasing lessors and airlines. [caption id="attachment_186702" align="aligncenter" width="580"] widebodies[/caption] Boeing saw excellent reaction to the 787 as the climb from 2011 shows. Then came battery fires and other hiccups. All the while, Airbus leaned on its A330 to keep going. The A380 and 747 are excluded from the chart. Deliveries plummeted going into the pandemic, and Airbus' A330 kept going, helping Airbus deliver more than Boeing for the first time in 20 years. [caption id="attachment_186703" align="aligncenter" width="504"] Initial Airbus A350 concept[/caption] Boeing quickly started its comeback, of course. Airbus also went through some tribulation as it tried to figure out what to do-the picture above should remind you of that period. Airbus dropped that idea and reinvented the A350 to what we know today, and what a good decision that was. Back to the A330. Here is a chart listing A330-300 and -900 orders. [caption id="attachment_186704" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Airbus; AirInsight[/caption] The data shows the A330-900 finally coming into its own. Traffic has recovered, new markets beckon, and with slot constraints growing, larger aircraft make more sense. It has attracted better order rates than the -300 over the period. Moreover, the -900 order rates are rising strongly. The issues that held back the program are gone. The winds moving the program are competitor delivery skyline, traffic growth, and replacing ageing A330s. It also helps that the -900 is a step change improvement in economics and range over the -300. We expect operators will keep demand for the -900 strong because it offers a great mix of range/payload/cost. Plus, it's an A330, arguably the lowest-risk widebody out there.

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