Airbus Single-Aisle Production Questions

Airbus has seen a spike in production this year. The attention is always focused on the single-aisle markets, because that is the bread and butter for the OEM. It is also the most stressed area because it accounts for most production. Is there anything different this year? There have been hints something is up. The chart below lays out the production (using first flight as the proxy) for the past three years. Both 2024 and 2025 see a spike in February. But in 2025, the drop-off is interesting. We haven't reach a month end, but we're close. In our tracker, we have been noting what looks like a drop off in deliveries. This reflects as a rise in inventory. The production drop off looks rather severe. [caption id="attachment_91296" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] We noted before that deliveries were slowing. That is mainly customer driven and items like cabin furnishing is what we hear about most. This is apparently the case with 787 inventory. But a production slowdown is another thing. Digging into the data it looks like the production slowdown is not evenly spread. That is, it looks like LEAP-engined models are most impacted. This is an important factor. Boeing is back pushing deliveries, which has driven up LEAP demand. This could be playing a part of the story. As you can imagine, CFM isn't talking. But another interesting item is that it appears GTF deliveries are doing well. Or at least better than expected. Despite the parked fleet waiting for parts, new engine deliveries look strong. Pratt & Whitney are doing a briefing next week and we will no doubt hear about GTF plans. We see GTF deliveries also not slowing A220 production. That program is in need of more orders, but as of now, deliveries are up a bit. As the leading OEM, Airbus plays the role of a weather vane. How it goes at Airbus tells us a lot about what is going on down the supply chain. Any hint of swings up or down in production and deliveries are read like tea leaves. We believe, based on what we are seeing, we are again at such a moment. There are questions but few answers. Supply chain firms remain tense and uncertain. They continue to doubt what Airbus and Boeing tell them about rates. And for good reason. Meanwhile, in an effort to de-risk their business, suppliers are leaning back towards Boeing. In summary there are several ideas of what is going on. As always, it will end up being a combination of all the things we hear. Keep watching this space.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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