Boeing 777-9 Now Delayed until 2027

The beleaguered Boeing 777-X program is experiencing another delay, per FAA administrator Bryan Bedford, who spoke at the CAPA Airline Leadership Summit. He indicated the he expects the 737 MAX 7, followed by the MAX 10 to be certified before year end, but that the 777-9 would likely slip to the first quarter of 2027. [caption id="attachment_192461" align="aligncenter" width="580"] First production 777-X for Lufthansa, image: Boeing[/caption] This echoes remarks from Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg who indicated last week at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference. He indicated that the overall timetable appears to have shifted to the right. Ortberg stated “You should expect that we will hopefully be done with our flight test program by the end of the year, with the exception of ETOPS.” He indicated that ETOPS would slip until next year. Boeing is continuing to build the airplane and is getting ready to start deliveries in 2027. Ortberg indicated that customers would be reluctant to accept a non-ETOPS aircraft, and want the testing completed. That translates to yet another program delay for an aircraft originally scheduled for first deliveries in 2019. While short delays for new programs are typical, this seven year delay follows a five year delay on the 787 program and the MAX debacle leading to two fatal crashes and 346 deaths. In the wake of the 787 and 737 safety groundings, going slow may be a good thing. Resource Challenged? When the 777-X program began, Boeing was completing the delayed 787 program, but moved forward with the new 777-9 variant, with expectations for EIS in 2019. Of course, the 737 MAX crashes and grounding, followed by the global pandemic, had a massive impact on Boeing’s cash flow and financial position. Nonetheless, Boeing continued to move forward with the program, which is finally nearing completion. Unfortunately, the compounding delays have cost the company both potential customers and competitive position. Boeing has a common flight test department. With three aircraft models in certification flight testing simultaneously, prioritization of resources becomes an issue. With many more orders, the 737 MAX models are the current highest priority. Clearly, once the 737-7 and 737-10 are completed, the 777-9 will have additional resources available to help speed the process to its full regulatory approval. [caption id="attachment_192462" align="aligncenter" width="580"] 777-9 Test Aircraft, image: Boeing[/caption] In addition, GE Aerospace, which provides the GE9X engines for the aircraft, continues to work on a final configuration to correct a “mid-seal durability” issue that emerged in January. Both GE and Boeing have indicated a fix will not impact deliveries early next year. Neither company foresees any major challenge to overcome for regulatory approval to the fix, which GE Aerospace is still working through. The Bottom Line Boeing’s aggressive program that entails three simultaneous certification programs, undertaken with a much higher level of scrutiny than for the MAX 8, during which Boeing, per e-mails released in the wake of the two fatal crashes, misled the FAA on the MCAS systems. The new level of detail and “prove it” mentality required by the FAA, along with the workload of three aircraft and the lack of long-term employees who retired during the pandemic have contributed significantly to the delays. While there is light at the end of the tunnel, the process isn’t over until the final steps are completed. Let’s hope that we’ve heard “pushed to the right” from Boeing for the final time after many years of incremental delays.

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