Duopoly Faces Steep Climb in Late 2025

As we enter the last month of 3Q25, here's some insight on duopoly production. The chart below illustrates how duopoly production took off with the NEO and MAX. Adoption of these models, with their industry-leading fuel burn improvements, were embraced. We use first flights as a proxy for production. As we've said before, a first flight requires the aircraft to be complete. [caption id="attachment_107546" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] The impact of the MAX debacle is clear to see, and so is Boeing's recovery. There have been bumps, but Boeing is clawing its way back. The 2025 data shows Airbus is significantly lower than the previous year. Let's dig into the 2025 data to see what's going on. The following chart looks at 2025 through September 12. [caption id="attachment_107549" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Airbus saw the predictable August slowdown impact. Boeing is also seeing a significant slowdown. The September data covers less than half of the month. Let's go down one more layer into the daily activity. Here's the August chart. Even though Airbus was on summer vacation, its four FALS were active. Boeing was also active, but with fewer FALs, it was less active. [caption id="attachment_107550" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Here is the September chart, and what a change! Airbus activity jumped yesterday. The Boeing data for the 12th has not been listed yet, and we will update this as soon as we get it. [caption id="attachment_107551" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Summary Airbus - With a delivery target for 2025, and deliveries below the required rate, it's going to be a backloaded year. Guillaume Faury spoke in Washington, DC, at the US Chamber of Commerce Aerospace Summit just this week. He reiterated that the 820 delivery target stands, and he's confident they can get there. By our count, there are 93 aircraft listed as work-in-progress. There have been 503 deliveries YTD, so if the WIP aircraft are delivered, another 224 need to be produced and delivered. That means 56 new builds, test flown, and delivered by December 2025. The hill is getting awfully steep. This is a good time to explain deliveries. There are two types: "Contractual Delivery" and what we call "Factual Delivery". A contractual delivery is where the customer acceptance flight is complete and the customer accepts the aircraft. However, it does not mean the plane flies off to its new home. Our factual delivery requires the plane to leave the FAL and go to its new workplace. For this reason, our numbers never match those of the OEMs. Boeing - The primary challenge here is that inventory for tankers, MAX, and 787 is not zero yet. Boeing needs to deliver the aircraft it has produced to their customers. The biggest item is MAXs. By our count, Boeing has 88 aircraft as work-in-progress. Of the MAX inventory, 28 are MAX 7 (25) and MAX 10 (3) that are undeliverable. Of the other MAX models, 96% have been delivered. There are 43 MAX 8s in inventory, destined for China, that have been parked for a long time. Crucially for Boeing, if we look at MAX 8-200s and MAX 9s, these are being produced and delivered. The pity is that these models are in much less demand than the MAX 8. In conclusion, stay tuned. The last four months will be interesting to watch. The duopoly is going to push the supply chain and its own employees hard.

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