Duopoly’s Billion Dollar Cash Trap: Undelivered Aircraft

Along with other sources, we have been tracking deliveries, and as we approach the last three weeks of the year, what can we say about the duopoly's situation? We want to offer a perspective we have not seen before - ageing deliveries. The number of aircraft is a surprise. Consider that the typical value (after discounts) of a single-aisle aircraft is likely ~$50m, and of a widebody ~$150 m. Of the 2121 WIP aircraft listed, 73%are single-aisles. That alone could be worth $7.7 billion. The tied-up capital is big money. Here's a model showing how many aircraft the duopoly has flown but not delivered, along with the number of days since that first flight. Both are sitting on a lot of capital tied up in WIP. Click on the + to the left of each model to see who the customers are. Airbus: The notable concern here is the A220-100 for COMLUX. The MRTT takes a lot of time to complete. They are either new build or modified from airline use. The A319 is now a niche and treated as such. Boeing: The MAX 8 inventory improvement is a big positive. The flea in the ointment is the ageing Chinese delivery. Overall, only a handful of aircraft are ageing. The MAX 7 situation is awkward - 25 aircraft ageing until certification. There are only three MAX 10s, but these too represent sizeable WIP capital. The half dozen tankers are an eyesore. Fortunately, the -2C version seems to be on track. The 777-9 situation has been discussed, and we have nothing to add. The 737-700 and -8FV are destined for military use, and these run longer. An interesting tidbit: one of the -700s was the frame meant to become the USAF Wedgetail.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

Related News

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

Related News

Argentina’s Aviation Market Leaves Flybondi Behind

Southwest’s 737-700 Problem Harder to Ignore

Is Airbus Medium Term Guidance Feasible?