KC 390 3 scaled
Embraer announced its 1Q25 deliveries. Here’s the table they published.
Notes:
- 30 aircraft, which is 20% better than the same period last year.
- The growth was in business jets, and the Phenom 300 is the star performer again.
- Our attention is focused on commercial aircraft; we see no growth over the same period last year.
- This confirms our delivery tracking and indicates supply chain challenges are starting to press.
- Even so, the company has its largest backlog in history.
- JP Morgan states: “1Q Backlog Estimate. We estimate that 1Q25 backlog will amount to ~US$26.8bn, a new all-time high and implying a growth of 27% yoy and 2% qoq.
- In background discussions, we are guided to a significant backload for deliveries this year.
- Embraer has won several significant orders for its military aircraft, which should start deliveries later this year. This is especially important for the big ticket C-390.
- Besides, recent news about Embraer’s approaches to Poland and Turkey speaks of potentially higher-order dealmaking. If these deals materialize, they will add to the backlog. However, they also promise steady production increases outside the US market.
- Embraer has long been US-focused, with its E175 going to US regional airlines. However, that market is not growing as quickly anymore, so turning to other markets with bigger ticket models is the right move.
- The challenge is commercial aircraft production rates and deliveries. In our view, this is the metric to watch.
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