Insight – Airbus and rate 75

Airbus said it has a production of 75 A320neo-family per month by 2025. It will adjust the rate ramp-up as necessary prior to 2025. Supply chain issues could slow this ramp-up, as is the case at Boeing. Currently, Airbus has a 2024 target at a monthly rate of 65. Here's a look at Airbus and rate 75. Take a look at the Airbus history of the A320neo family. Orders started with a bang, to say the least. The A320ceo family ramped down as the A320neo ramped up. The backlog grew to over 6,000 as EIS began and has remained there, even as deliveries started. Orders kept coming in to ensure the backlog remained over 6,000. It remained at this level even through the pandemic. The popularity of these aircraft remained strong. But there was a sea change that the chart does not show; a move away from the smallest models to the largest. The A318 and A319 saw declines in interest and the A321 overcompensated. Indeed, in 2021 we saw the A321 outsell the A320 for the first time. Next look at A320neo-family deliveries on a monthly basis since they first started. Each year has seen a steady increase in deliveries with the volume growing as yearend approaches. Working at an Airbus FAL after the August holiday can't be so much fun! The pressure is on. Although 2020 saw a decline, 2021 and 2022 are back at previous peaks and beyond. While Airbus has stressed the supply chain just as much as Boeing, Airbus has proven the far more reliable OEM. Consequently, we would say the supply chain is more willing to trust Airbus to achieve the rate goal. We think it might be useful to consider deliveries as a proxy for the production rate. If we look at the same A320neo-family deliveries as above, on yearly basis, we get this. It's clear that a rate of 65 is realistic. An extra FAL in Mobile which is relatively new surely helps. They have come close to the rate of 60 and exceeded that three times. That was 2021, 2020, and 2019. But rate 75 is going to be tough. Airbus has FALs in France, Germany, China, and the US. But these FALS need parts and based on Boeing's earnings call its engines that is the biggest challenge. Earlier this year Airbus secured engine makers to support their 2024 rate of 65. More recently, Pratt & Whitney thinks they can reach a rate of 75 in 2026. CFM has to supply both Airbus and Boeing with engines, so the hill they have to climb is even steeper.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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