Insight – Is the A330 the best twin-aisle Airbus?

Airbus A330 hit its 30th birthday today. Yes, 30 years of the A330! We think there is a case to be describing this model as the best twin-aisle Airbus has made to date. As we always do with our analyses, we go to the data. Here is our case for the A330 being the best twin-aisle Airbus has made. Starting in 2000 through the updates from the OEMs in September, this is what we see of the A330 and its competing programs at Boeing. The Airbus models we are working with here are deliveries of A330s excluding freighters, plus A350-900s. For Boeing, we are listing the 767-300ER, 767-400ER, 777-200ER, and the three 787 models. The delivery history shows that Boeing saw more variation over the period. The key here is the winding down of the passenger 767 deliveries and the transition to the 787. The 787 entered service in 2011. The A330 entered service in 1994 and has soldiered on through the Boeing transition. In 2018 we wrote about the A330 and said not to diss the aircraft. Here we are four years later and the A330 keeps getting better. As the 767-passenger program wound down, the A330 was in demand. When the 787 problems emerged, the A330 picked up more demand. Breaking down the numbers above into models we see the following. Boeing offered several models in the segment, including 767s, 777s, and 787s. They had every variation of airline requirements covered. We see how the 777-200ER outsold the 767-300ER. Then the 787-8 entered the market with great promise. But within six years that model was eclipsed by the 787-9. The 787-10 has become the 777-200ER replacement for those operators sticking with Boeing. At Airbus, a simpler strategy was being deployed - continual improvement of the A330. Bear in mind that the A330ceo was a compromised aircraft - it shared a wing with the A340 which had four engines. This put the A330 at a disadvantage since its wing was not optimized for twin engines. The A330neo has fixed that issue. This history shows that operators from 2004 started to buy into the Airbus strategy. All aircraft have a commercial life and we see the A330-200 winding down. Even though it was the basis for a freighter and remains the basis of the MRTT. The A330-300 did very well against the 777-200ER and even the 787s. As an example, Delta has kept on the Northwest A330 fleet and retired its 777s. American, on the other hand, went the other way, parking A330s and moving to 787s. We include the A350-900 on the charts because this model is the most direct competitor to the 787-9. What did the Airbus A330 strategy achieve? It was a lower-cost approach and also considerably lower risk. Airbus was able to recover its A330 program investment, and with each iteration and improvement, offer more airplane. Operators like the lower-risk approach and love getting more capability at a relatively fixed price. Indeed, when the A330neo was announced, we had a background chat with a senior Airbus executive who explained that the A330neo was to offer current A330 customers a replacement path. But crucially, this path would come at a far lower price point than a 787. Essentially the A330neo would offer ~90% of the 787 performance and ~60% of the cost. Numbers like that resonate. The chart shows that the A350-900 is competing with the 787-9. Meanwhile, the A330neo variants are moving into A330ceo replacements as well as some 777 replacements. Airbus's offering is two models compared to Boeing's three. But the Airbus offering is two versions of two models, essentially bracketing the 787 family. Operators can select between state-of-the-art 787 vs A350. That comes with state-of-the-art pricing. Or an operator can deploy the A330neo and get nearly the same economics (with less range) and much better pricing. The A330-300, the one that first flew on November 2, 1992, is about to start a second life as a freighter. As is the -200, which had its maiden flight on August 13, 1997. As each one of these moves out of passenger service, there is a better than even chance it will be replaced by an A330-900. There are exceptions of course, like Hawaiian. Interestingly Hawaiian is going to be operating A330Fs. The A330 program has seen off the 767 and 777 in its segment. Now it competes with the 787 and does so without any fuss. Our final chart for this post shows monthly transactions for commercial aircraft - both new and previously owned. The upper chart shows delivery volumes and the lower percentages. Airbus in green and Boeing in blue. Airbus is doing well with its offerings in this segment. Better than one might have thought or expected. The A330 meets most requirements for this segment, especially low-risk and low-cost. The chart below represents a market of over 1,500 aircraft so this is not an insignificant segment. Airbus has no other twin-aisle model with this kind of longevity and ubiquity. Passengers, freight, and even a military refueler - we say the A330 is the best twin-aisle Airbus has produced.

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