MAX 10 Nears Certification; the Software Fix Is the Gate

The FAA is reportedly days away from certifying the 737 MAX 10. Reuters, citing three people familiar with the matter, says approval could come as soon as this week. The FAA's Type-Certification Board finished its key safety review on Friday, October 16, and a final management meeting remains. Neither the FAA nor Boeing has announced approval, and the agency has said only that "safety dictates the timeline." For Boeing, it closes a program that is years late. For its customers and for Airbus, the date that matters comes later. What Certification Gives Boeing Certification removes the regulatory risk. The aircraft completed 976 test flights, more than 2,060 flight hours, and about 1,040 hours of ground testing. The last certification flight was in July, and Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg has said that since September, only documentation has remained. Boeing certified the MAX 7 in August. The book it unlocks is large. Reuters puts MAX 10 orders at nearly 1,500, about 30% of the 737 backlog, a share Ortberg also cited. Customers include United, Alaska, Ryanair, Delta and American. Lufthansa Group added 20 in September. By ch-aviation's data, United alone has 165 unfilled orders, although that count dates from May 2025 and may have changed, since United's MAX order contract has model flexibility. Which is why we see the airline taking so many MAX 9s. What it doesn't give Boeing is near-term aircraft. First customer deliveries are targeted for 2027. The 737 line runs at 47 a month on paper, but Ortberg has said it isn't stable at that rate yet, with wings as the pacing item, and the move to 52 needs the new North Line in Everett. In the third quarter, 737 deliveries were 124, about 41 a month. A certified MAX 10 doesn't add to that count this year. The Software Is the Gate The FAA's October 2 finding that the flight-management software behavior "is not a safety concern" is what cleared the way. It did not make a fix a condition of certification. The flaw is in FMS Update 14.1, the only version that supports both the MAX 7 and MAX 10: after a go-around, vertical navigation can drop out, and the crew has to take extra steps to restore it. Customers are treating that differently than the regulator. Southwest and United have told Boeing they do not want the affected software installed on incoming aircraft. The reporting we've seen doesn't say they have formally refused MAX 7 or MAX 10 deliveries by name, so we'd describe it as a stated unwillingness to accept the software, not a formal rejection. The date that matters is Boeing's: According to a September 28 report on Boeing's August notice to operators, Boeing expected more pilot guidance by November and planned a software update for early 2028. Boeing says it is trying to bring both forward. If the 2028 date held, it would fall after the 2027 delivery target. We don't know whether an interim configuration can be delivered, and Boeing hasn't said. That question will decide whether the first MAX 10s arrive in 2027. Customers: Who Is Exposed Ryanair. 150 firm MAX 10s plus 150 options, with CEO Michael O'Leary expecting the first deliveries in spring 2027. Ryanair has been the most public about timing and the most confident. It is also most exposed if the software date slips, since the 2027 fleet plan depends on these deliveries. United. The largest customer by count, and one of the two carriers that have told Boeing it doesn't want the 14.1 software. It has said it wants certification before converting 737 MAX 9 orders to MAX 10s, so certification itself matters here, and so does the fix. Alaska. Expects its first MAX 10 next spring. That is the earliest delivery date we've seen from a US carrier. Southwest. Its position is the MAX 7, not the -10. It plans to fly the MAX 7 next year, and it is unclear whether new MAX 7s can be delivered with the earlier software Southwest requested. Several other items are holding back deliveries, particularly who pays for aged-out items like hoses and tires. Delta and American. Both are in the order book. We haven't found a recent delivery timetable from either. For all of them, the MAX 10 is a replacement and growth aircraft, not a near-term capacity source. In a year when fuel is the main earnings problem, that matters for capacity plans in 2027 and 2028. What It Means for Airbus Airbus A321XLR Farnborough Airshow 2024 The MAX 10 competes with the A321neo, and certification removes an argument Airbus has used for years: that the stretched MAX would not arrive. It does not take away Airbus's lead. Timing. Airbus is delivering A321neos now. Boeing's first MAX 10 is a 2027 event at best, and a software fix planned for early 2028 could push it later. Any airline that needs capacity sooner cannot wait for the MAX 10. Which is why we see Airbus A321 demand as rock solid. Range and size. The A321neo family, particularly the long-range variants, covers missions the MAX 10 does not. But then the MAX 10 isn't aimed at long-haul routes. Production. Airbus has its own problem converting its backlog of roughly 9,300 aircraft into deliveries, with engines and parts as the constraint, and it needs 323 deliveries in 4Q to reach its 870 annual target. A Boeing MAX 10 that is certified but not delivering doesn't shift that. Where Airbus could be affected is on the margin. A buyer that held back an A321neo order because the MAX 10 was uncertain now has a certification date. Whether that translates into orders will show later on. We don't expect it to show in deliveries over the next 12 months. What the Market Is Pricing Boeing's stock closed Friday at $190.21, about 25% below its late-January peak near $252. It fell 6.9% on September 28, when the software issue broke, and remains below its $198 close from before that drop. The mean analyst target fell from $273 to $268 over the first half of October, and the low target from $248 to $206. Morgan Stanley cut to $225 and RBC to $235, the latter citing defense budget uncertainty. Certification is largely expected, so the stock's reaction is likely to depend on what Boeing says on October 27 about production rate and the fix, not the certificate itself. We'd treat the analyst numbers as a secondary source. Questions for Boeing Will the first MAX 10s be delivered with the current (pre-14.1) software, an earlier version, or an interim fix, and does an earlier version exist for the -10? Is the early-2028 date for the permanent fix still current, and what has moved forward? When did Boeing first know about the behavior, and why didn't it disclose it publicly until late September? We raised this before, and it remains unanswered. What is the 737 line rate in practice, against the 47 a month on paper? Our tracking suggests ~42 as the actual rate. Bottom Line Certification will make the MAX 10 a deliverable aircraft, and Boeing will celebrate it. The software fix, which Boeing's August notice dates to early 2028, is the real gate for the customers that matter most, and it isn't tied to the FAA's decision. Airbus loses an argument but not a lead: the A321neo is flying now, and any airline that needs aircraft in 2027 cannot plan around the MAX 10. The two dates to watch are October 27, when Boeing reports, and whichever day Boeing says the corrected software will be available.

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