The Duopoly’s August 2025 – snakes and ladders

Our data production and delivery model is now updated through the end of August. We hope that no late-breaking deliveries occurred yesterday that we missed. If we find any, this story will be updated. We note that the first delivery for September has already occurred from COMAC, a C909 to Lao Airlines. This is an ex-Chengdu airplane. The Chinese airline space and its dealings with COMAC remain an enigma. How did the Duopoly do last month? Airbus It was a challenging month for Airbus, not least because Europeans took their summer vacations. The table shows 50 deliveries. Despite Airbus discussing rate 65, it fell short. Speaking with supply chain firms, we hear rising skepticism about Airbus targets. Our sense, too, is that the 820 is slipping away. To achieve 820 this year, Airbus must hit ~82 per month from September on. If the Broughton strike occurs, we estimate that a ten-day disruption could result in a 4% reduction of the delivery target. Should the strike occur, it would provide a convenient excuse for management to use. Currently, the strike is "suspended". [caption id="attachment_105074" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Next, here's a breakdown of the month. There were several days with no deliveries. The average day curve shows one bump, which was an A321NX for Delta. Overall, the delivery day curve was steady, reflecting production rates moving at a steady pace. [caption id="attachment_105075" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] In summary, we estimate that by the end of the month, Airbus will have reached 49.8% of its 2025 delivery target. This is clearly behind what it should be. The following chart illustrates Airbus' performance this year in comparison to its performance in recent years. They have been behind on deliveries for the past two years. The supply chain has since recovered substantially, and we feel justified in reevaluating the 820 target. [caption id="attachment_105077" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Boeing Here, there is better news: while Boeing is still behind Airbus, it is continuing to make progress and claw its way back. Yes, Boeing outdelivered Airbus in August! Not only has Boeing worked its way through the ghost MAX factory, its 787s are moving again. This performance marks significant developments for Boeing. And all of it is positive. A stronger Boeing is positive for the supply chain, and crucially, also good for Airbus. [caption id="attachment_105078" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Here's the Boeing breakdown for the month. Several daily gaps in deliveries. The average delivery day curve spikes as aging China MAX deliveries go through. What you want to note, though, is the month-end. It's as if a plug was removed and several aircraft were delivered. We expect Boeing to continue unlocking its production capacity as it refines its production rhythm. It has reached its 38/month maximum rate for several months, and industry chatter suggests that by November, that rate could increase to 42/month. [caption id="attachment_105079" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] While the focus of this report is deliveries, bear in mind that the 777X program is also making progress. The market has responded with some significant orders last month. Here's our last Boeing chart. Compare this to the Airbus chart. Yes, Airbus is delivering more. However, Airbus is falling behind, while Boeing is performing much better than it did previously. Our view, stated some months ago, is that Airbus squandered a one-in-a-lifetime opportunity to surpass Boeing, which was not appreciated in Europe. We'll say again. Airbus should have tied up the supply chain, but it didn't. And now the supply chain is thrilled to support a resurgent Boeing. The Boeing that previously was squeezing the supply chain has changed its tune. The supply chain is responding in kind. [caption id="attachment_105081" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Boeing has set a delivery target for the year. Analysts believe the number is 540. We think Boeing may exceed this number. That would still put it ~225 behind Airbus. However, this performance would represent a significant improvement over the chaotic Calhoun era. And you can hear it when speaking with people at Boeing. The bounce in their step is noticeable.

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