2018 year-end transactions

With December 31 receding into history, it is time to review the sales and deals (transactions) from 2018. The transactions cover both new and pre-owned aircraft. To start with, the first chart shows that 2018 was a "down" year overall. Only January 2018 was higher than the previous period. Another view on the year numbers looks like this. Overall, the numbers were down nearly 10%. All four largest segments in the market were down. Next, let's break down the numbers by OEM. There were lots of Airbus deals, higher for 2018 than 2017. For Boeing, it went the other way. Bombardier also saw a tough year, while Embraer saw a tougher year, there's was much better than Bombardier's. Even adding back the A220/C Series doesn't help close the gap much. As we break down the data further by aircraft model we can see where these OEMs saw their products traded. First the single-aisle market. Note we added the Embraer E-195 to this group. Also, note the numbers are for airlines and lessors. A key item that shows up is that the market for the A319 is much brighter than for the 737-700. Summing the Airbus and Boeing numbers for the two years we see that transactions for Airbus models went from 1,047 to 1,171. For Boeing, it was 868 to 823, respectively. Boeing saw transactions for their "bread & butter" 737-800 decline by 27.8% and Airbus saw their equivalent A320 drop 6.7%. The MAX8, likely the new "bread & butter" model saw transactions rise 201.4% compared to the A320neo 68.8%. For 2018, in the larger size in this market, the 737-900 and MAX9 generated 57 transactions (new deliveries) compared to the A321 and A321neo at 296. The Airbus lead is clearly driven by their strength in the larger sizes. Despite the noise around the MAX9, the A321neo is way out in front. We don't see the MAX10 closing this gap. As the first A321LRs go to customers, the gap is likely to increase. Next the twin-aisle segment. This market has been a Boeing strength all year. We noted Airbus' strength in the larger sizes of the single-aisle market. Here we see the same thing for Boeing in the 787 - the larger models dominate. However, Boeing delivered 148 787s in 2017 while it delivered 142 in 2018. This is a surprise. We expected -10 deliveries to be faster than those of the -8. Boeing is way down the learning curve on 787 production. The 777-300 transactions dropped 36.1% - production has slowed, and airlines that have these aircraft are not trading them. In terms of Airbus, we see their A330 transactions declined 23.4% year on year. This may be slowing new deliveries and airlines holding on their existing fleet. Recall how quickly the airBelin A330 fleet was absorbed. Also, the first A330neo was delivered, and we expect to see these rise in 2019 as A330ceo transactions soften. Like the 777, the A330 is a workhorse that is likely to kept in service. Next the A350, Airbus saw 81 transactions in 2017 and 85 in 2018. This program is likely to become a strength for Airbus. The A350 easily competes with the 787 and is likely to also compete against the 777X. Unlike the 777X, Airbus has a wide range of customers for the A350-1000. The A380 is on slow burn and remains an area of interest - has the market left the VLA? We are on record as being in favor of the VLA as arguably the best way to exploit limited slots at major hubs. Major hubs are not going to disappear and they invariably will become O&D markets as hub-busting grows. Next the regional segment. We added the Sukhoi to this group as they are seeing growing market attention. Once the ARJ-21 picks up momentum, we will add them too. This segment saw a tough year in 2018. Whereas 2017 saw 520 transactions, 2018 saw 350 - a 32.7% decline. The market driver is the US, and that market is locked into the scope clause. Despite this limit, Embraer has managed to hold on deals. Embraer saw transactions decline 26.5% while Bombardier saw transactions decline 50.3%. This means as the market shrank, Embraer held on to more share. The decision by Bombardier to sell the C Series to Airbus and the Q400 program to Viking has left the CRJ program something of an orphan. This makes the future of that program being questioned. Since aircraft are long-term assets, Bombardier would benefit from clearing the air on the CRJ program. The CRJ is an aging program and the tweaks like a new cabin are band-aids.

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