Insight: The Future of the MAX7 and MAX10

The future of the MAX7 and MAX10 programs at Boeing is now moving firmly into the hands of politicians. In the wake of the two MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019, several recommendations were made by the National Transportation Safety Board and international regulators regarding flight crew alerting systems. Many of those recommendations were codified into law by Congress in late 2020, providing a two-year window after which all new aircraft would be required to include a more sophisticated flight crew alerting system.

The FAA, which certifies new aircraft in the US and follows the laws set by Congress, is tasked with developing new requirements for crew alerting systems in the cockpit and defining the processes for determining how human factors impact flight operations and requirements in the cockpit. With the time frame for the law ending next month and the certification of both aircraft delayed until next year, it is clear that something will have to give.

The mid-term elections could determine whether Congress will modify the law passed in 2020 to exempt the MAX 10 and MAX 7 from the new requirements and allow the aircraft to be certified as designed or require Boeing

to go back to the drawing board and design a new crew alerting system for those two models. If the law is not changed, Boeing would likely walk away from both variants, as they represent a small portion of the overall demand for the MAX family. The backlog for the MAX through mid-October 2022 by the model is as follows, with any orders for undisclosed models categorized as MAX 8 orders.

The MAX7 and MAX10 represent 27.3% of the MAX backlog, a significant number. However, given the cost to replace the crew alerting system and delay certification of the aircraft, Boeing’s CEO David Calhoun has indicated that the company might walkway from the MAX10, and likely the MAX7, if legislation to extend the deadline is not passed.

Given the large number of jobs that Boeing supports in virtually every state, they are an important employer with substantial clout in Washington DC. Is it likely that Boeing could lobby enabling legislation pressure providing a regulatory exemption for the MAX? Perhaps, but nothing is ever certain in politics.

Airline customers like aircraft commonality within a family. Two different crew alerting systems require pilots to qualify on each aircraft separately, making it more costly to train all pilots on all aircraft.

Is an upgraded crew alerting system a safety issue? Yes, it is. Is the Boeing 737 MAX now a safe aircraft without it? Many industry observers might say yes in that the 737NG, which used a similar system, has been one of the safer aircraft models over its lifetime. Many aircraft remain in service today without an upgraded crew alerting system.

Industry groups differ in their approach to this issue. Pilots at American Airlines favor a new crew alerting system, believing that anything that improves safety is worthwhile accomplishing. Other groups, including pilot groups at Southwest and United, believe that two different crew alerting systems might confuse flight crews and prefer commonality.

The alternative that nobody speaks about is upgrading the system and retrofitting it to existing 737 MAX aircraft. While a more expensive alternative, it guarantees a more modern, albeit not quite a state-of-the-art, crew alerting system for the new MAX models that could be retrofitted to existing MAX aircraft. If commonality is important, upgrading older aircraft to newer technology would provide that commonality, but it would be expensive.

Boeing needs to be on time in certifying the MAX10 and MAX7. Should it get a legislative bye from new requirements, and would that be perceived as home country favoritism overseas? The answer is probably yes, and it will reduce the international credibility of the FAA again if it is forced to follow new legislation giving Boeing a pass on regulatory requirements.

The China Card

China has a role to play in this process. China was the first country to ground the MAX and will be the last to return it to service. While an initial two MAX flights were scheduled by a Chinese carrier last week, they were canceled. China is the only country that has effectively blocked the MAX. Given their slow movement and reluctance to approve the aircraft, Boeing is now seeking other customers for already completed planes in inventory awaiting delivery to Chinese customers.

While China has formally approved the return of the MAX to Chinese skies (and one flight by a Mongolian airline flew a MAX in Chinese airspace recently), the government has slowed deliveries of MAX aircraft to Chinese carriers. Those actions, apparently geo-politically rather than safety-based, could generate sympathy for Boeing in Congress and result in the legislative waiver that would enable the MAX10 and MAX7 to enter service. In a way, Chinese recalcitrance to enable the MAX to fly in China could benefit Boeing by creating a more sympathetic environment in Congress to what might be perceived as anti-American policies.

A smarter move by the Chinese government would be to allow the MAX8 and MAX9 back into service but not certify the MAX10 and MAX7 to fly in China due to their lack of a modern Crew Alerting System. As China hasn’t a significant backlog for those models, preferring the Airbus A321neo over the MAX10 for a high-capacity narrow body, it wouldn’t make any difference to Chinese airlines. Still, it would place a regulatory stake in the ground indicating that the system of reciprocity only works when regulatory authorities and companies do what is required – in this case completing certification by December 19th, 2022. As the current US certification requirements call for a more modern crew alerting system, China could cite that as a reason not to allow the MAX10 and MAX7 in China. That would throw a wrench in Boeing’s plans and set a precedent that firmly sets international rules to eliminate home country favoritism.

The Bottom Line

Boeing and the FAA need to be on time in certifying the MAX10 and MAX7. The law that grants an exception is expiring but waiving the new rules for Boeing will be seen internationally as a “home-team” gesture that violates the spirit of the international aviation regulatory scheme and might even become a WTO trade violation.

In our view, improved safety should always be pursued. Since Boeing has a modern Engine Indication and Crew Alert System (EICAS) on every model other than the 737 MAX, it is certainly aware of the technology required to get the job done. This should have taken less than two years to complete if the proper priority was placed on the effort at Boeing.

Fleet commonality is important to airlines. But since every other Boeing airplane has an EICAS, why shouldn’t the 737 MAX be upgraded as well? Apart from the fact that it would be expensive, there isn’t a good answer for avoiding safety improvements. Older aircraft can always be retrofitted with new systems to provide commonality to a higher standard.

We believe that Congress should not provide a waiver for Boeing that eliminates the requirement for a modern crew alerting system for the MAX10 and MAX7. That would send a message of nationalistic favoritism to regulatory agencies worldwide and likely come back to bite us in the future.

The Boeing Company had two years to comply with the new requirement or complete certification of the aircraft before the deadline and failed to do so on a timely basis. If the economics of the MAX10 and MAX7 programs go south and are canceled, so be it. The handwriting has been on the wall for two years, and Boeing needs to take full responsibility for not dealing with the issue, as they likely didn’t think it necessary if they were to achieve an on-time certification. That is poor contingency planning and just another symptom of how mismanagement at Boeing caused the MAX safety issues in the first place. Sometimes, you need to learn the hard way.