1Q25 – Tracking OEM Orders & Deliveries

With the end of the first quarter, how do things look?  Please use this link for our daily O&D tracker.

Let’s start with the following table.

• Airbus—We saw tremendous acceleration in deliveries at the end of March. Looking back, March 2025 saw the most deliveries for the month—a blowout performance. Airbus

  is guiding to backloading this year. Even so, the OEM accelerated its rate earlier than most had expected.

• Boeing – After an excellent January, Boeing’s deliveries slowed marginally.  Its inventory of MAXs is nearly run down, and the FAA-imposed production rate limit is now becoming a significant factor.  However, we believe this limit could be eased as Boeing moves its key problem solvers back into the FALs from the ghost factories.  Boeing is likely to meet its KPIs as agreed to by the FAA.
• COMAC – This OEM continues to be all about long-term promise.  We continue to hear anecdotes about more production capacity coming online.  However, COMAC remains dependent on the Western supply chain and cannot get engines any faster than it gets now.  We remain doubtful about this OEM taking on the duopoly this decade.
• Embraer – This OEM makes tracking difficult because it decided to make this activity as secret as possible.  Working with deliveries, which Embraer cannot hide, we continue to decipher the data we find.  1Q25 was not especially productive for Embraer. History shows 2025 has a slow start. We understand they, too, are looking at a backloaded year.  Supply chain challenges are showing.

Notes