1Q25 – Tracking OEM Orders & Deliveries

With the end of the first quarter, how do things look? Please use this link for our daily O&D tracker. Let's start with the following table. [caption id="attachment_90632" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] Airbus—We saw tremendous acceleration in deliveries at the end of March. Looking back, March 2025 saw the most deliveries for the month—a blowout performance. Airbus is guiding to backloading this year. Even so, the OEM accelerated its rate earlier than most had expected. Boeing - After an excellent January, Boeing's deliveries slowed marginally. Its inventory of MAXs is nearly run down, and the FAA-imposed production rate limit is now becoming a significant factor. However, we believe this limit could be eased as Boeing moves its key problem solvers back into the FALs from the ghost factories. Boeing is likely to meet its KPIs as agreed to by the FAA. COMAC - This OEM continues to be all about long-term promise. We continue to hear anecdotes about more production capacity coming online. However, COMAC remains dependent on the Western supply chain and cannot get engines any faster than it gets now. We remain doubtful about this OEM taking on the duopoly this decade. Embraer - This OEM makes tracking difficult because it decided to make this activity as secret as possible. Working with deliveries, which Embraer cannot hide, we continue to decipher the data we find. 1Q25 was not especially productive for Embraer. History shows 2025 has a slow start. We understand they, too, are looking at a backloaded year. Supply chain challenges are showing. Notes Even though Airbus handily outproduces Boeing, it only managed to deliver 10 more aircraft. Not particularly impressive. The supply chain is swinging back to Boeing, because it must and desires a stable and strong duopoly. In our view, Airbus lost a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to lock up the supply chain. Boeing will never allow that opportunity again unless something dramatic happens. And, to be clear, there is a more than zero chance such an event could occur. Boeing seems more productive than it has been in years, and that is building confidence. Each month of no bad news from Boeing is another month of better times. This rising tide helps everyone in commercial aviation. A spate of recent orders is evidence of Boeing's turnaround. Of course, Airbus is also winning business. The Airbus backlog at the quarter end, at the 2025 delivery target, is over a decade. Boeing is in the same position. This is excellent news for the supply chain and its sources of finance to make significant investment decisions on production capacity. However, the shortage of skilled people remains the industry's Achilles Heel. More Insight Another piece of insight can be seen here. [caption id="attachment_90633" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] Boeing leads in terms of delivery target performance. This is an important metric. Boeing remains hobbled by the missing MAX 7 and MAX 10 -this continues to hurt its business. Airbus continues to see demand for the A321 in every form. The XLR deliveries have started, and we should see several in the next quarter. COMAC and Embraer appear to be working through being at the low end of the supply chain, which rationally focuses on the duopoly. Both OEMs should try to integrate more vertically. Embraer has done this and needs to do more. COMAC, like Embraer, would like to do this. COMAC benefits China's determination to develop engine alternatives. Brazil does not have this.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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