Modeling US Airline fuel burn across fleets

Yesterday, we highlighted the significant impact of fuel costs on US airlines. Now, we want to delve deeper and present the data in a fresh light, if you will. The model is a one-pager and an easy read. The menu to the left follows our standard approach; select an airline to see its results. The upper chart shows seat miles per gallon by OEM. This is a broad brush, but you will notice trend changes. Specifically, the impact of airlines adding the A321neo. In this case, Frontier is the poster child for Airbus. Or, at Southwest, what adding the MAX has done. The lower chart is interactive; click the play button to watch the changes over time. Notice that the new generation aircraft are indeed a step change in fuel efficiency. Notes: The A330neo achieves impressive fuel efficiency and competes favorably with the Boeing 787-9. The A330-300 delivers excellent numbers and competes favorably with the 777-200 and is ~20% less fuel-efficient than the 787-10. The 787-10 is the most fuel-efficient twin-aisle aircraft. The A350-900 and the 787-9 compete closely. Both are considerably more fuel-efficient than the 777-300ER by 22%. Notice that the 767-300 and A330-200 are a sub-market, operating around 3,000 miles. Is this a segment that warrants consideration? The A321XLR can handle the range, but won't offer a better cabin experience, and definitely cannot compete in terms of freight. The A321neo is performing well, while the MAX 9 is delivering excellent numbers. This could be a harbinger of what to expect from the MAX 10. Finally, Embraer numbers are unattractive. The case for deploying the E2 in the US is growing. The segment from 120 to 180 seats needs a state-of-the-art aircraft. Although Airbus has increased A220 production rates, it is still short of its targets. How long before one of the big US airlines does a deal with Embraer? There were rumors in Paris of an agreement between Delta and Embraer for "up to 100 E-195-E2s." Nobody wanted to comment on this. It could be a strategic move for Delta. Lock up delivery slots and bust through the Scope Clause.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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