Aviation’s 10-Year Backlog

The commercial aviation duopoly has suffered from production shortfalls for various reasons. The net result of these shortfalls is a shortage of new airplanes and an extended industry backlog that is now over a decade in length. That is an unsustainable level, and while the duopoly augments its production, it will not be as fast as the recovery in traffic after the global pandemic. Backlogs may continue to expand, particularly for hot-selling models like the Airbus

A321neo and the Boeing 787. Even Embraer’s backlog is at a record. 

The following chart illustrates the overall backlog for the duopoly from 2000 through 2025, expressed in years of backlog on the books. In 2025, the industry remains at nearly 11 years, a much higher level than the historic trend of the 2010s, a period of fewer industry shocks and more stable economic conditions. Getting back to that level won’t be easy, as book-to-bill ratios remain higher than 1.0 in early 2026. Production needs to and will increase, but not at a rate fast enough to quickly bring down the long queue for new aircraft.

With decade-long backlogs, when Airbus and Boeing introduce the next generation of aircraft, a path to contractually transition between existing and future models will likely be needed. Airlines typically don’t want to be among the last recipients of older, less fuel-efficient models, but do want to be among the first to enjoy the efficiency of new models, albeit perhaps not the launch customer.