Replacing the Boeing 777LR

With the deployment of the A350ULR and Qantas' Sunshine Project, it is a moment to consider the long-range commercial airliner. Prior to the A350ULR, the Range King has been the 777LR. When a test flew from Hong Kong to Heathrow, the aircraft took the "long way", flying over the Pacific (and Seattle), landing in the UK with 45 minutes of fuel left in the tanks. Boeing laid claim to the world's longest-range aircraft with a splash. [caption id="attachment_22187" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Suzanna Darcy-Henneman 777-200LR pilot Heathrow Landing world record nonstop flight[/caption] Source: Airways Magazine Here it is seen landing in New Zealand as Boeing demonstrated the aircraft's tremendous range. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yHEHEy3SoI The aircraft offered performance to nearly connecting any two spots. Using the 8,555NM range on Great Circle Mapper we see the following. .Qantas and British Airways could have flown non-stop from Heathrow to Perth back then. But they didn't. Only the Australian east coast and New Zealand were beyond reach. Considering such a performance, the 777LR might have been thought to be a winner. As the following chart shows, this was not the case. The 777LR sold rather poorly. Here is a list of airlines and operators that took delivery from Boeing. Airbus' A340-500 only had 26 deliveries. It was understood the 777LR was a niche aircraft - but the niche was expected to be far greater. After all, Singapore Airlines had deployed the A340-500 on the world's longest non-stop routes from Singapore to the United States. With Qantas finding their 787-9 service from London to Perth (17 hours in-flight) doing well, the first copycat announced they were coming. Virgin Atlantic now plans to compete on the route with their 787-9. But the real prize is London to Sydney, non-stop. This route requires a range of 9,173 nautical miles. Qantas wants this market served. Airbus claims theirA350ULR can go 9,700NM, which could accommodate that flight. Airbus seems to offer the solution to a 20-hour flight requirement. But to date, only Singapore Airlines has the A350ULR. This seems to reinforce the fact that the ultra long range market remains a niche and a rather small one at that. How many aircraft does Qantas want for this service? We cannot see this as more than a handful. Qantas call it Project Sunrise, and it requires an aircraft to fly about 300 passengers and their luggage. The A350ULR as used by Singapore Airlines seats 161 - about half of what Qantas wants - in an all premium configuration. However, Qantas has noted the demand for more comfortable seats on the London-Perth route. Premium Economy sells strongly at nearly $4,000 return, while Business Class is priced at over $8,000. Even with few seats, a potential London-Sydney flight can be expected to be a lot more expensive. As Qantas ponders this market, it is worth noting the one-stop option is 22.5 hours long and priced a lot less. For comparison purposes, Sydney to New York is 9,940 miles and likely over an hour shorter than the London-Sydney. route Boeing's contender for the market would be the 777-8, the replacement for the 777LR. How does the market look for the 777-8 and the A350 in terms of operators and orders? As we can see the 777LR market has evolved from the original deliveries from Boeing. Compare the current 777LR operators and what orders these airlines have in place. There is a close symmetry between the 777LR fleet and 777-8. In terms of interest, the 777-8 orders listed are the entire order book. But note how many airlines using the 777LR have moved toward the A350. The A350s listed include the -900 (the version modified for the ULR, which can be modified back to a standard model) and -1000. It would seem that if Qantas went for the 777-8 which has the needed seat capacity (365 in two classes) with a base 8,700NM range. The aircraft would have to lose some seats to reach the required London-Sydney range of 9,188 nautical. Rather than 365 seats, we might see 300, with the question being whether the 18% reduction would generate the required improvement in range. The Bottom Line With the market for ultra-long-range aircraft so small, one wonders why the OEMs even bother. Specialized models for long-haul operations have had short operational lives and quickly became economically obsolete - like the 747SP and the A340-500. Part of their motivation could be bragging rights from offering the world's longest range aircraft. Part of their motivation is trying to be responsive to customers, who want to introduce non-stop routes between key cities. Airbus, in their wisdom, created the -900ULR to be convertible back to a standard -900. As fuel economy improves with improvements to engines and airframes during the production run of these two models, we will very likely see 10,000 nautical mile range with full payload become available over the next decade. Being convertible back to a standard aircraft was a very wise move by Airbus, and avoids having the next A340-500 as a slow-selling aircraft with virtually no residual value.

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