Breeze Airways making moves, quietly

Breeze Airways announced 19 new routes, including three new cities (ALB, ROC, and MEM) and 13 nonstop flights. This small airline's footprint is growing. Let's examine some numbers. The most current DoT data is through 3Q24, but there's enough history to see trends. Traffic The following chart lists ASMs and load factors. Breeze has grown rapidly, but its growth through 3Q24 seems to need tweaking as load factors stabilize. Operating in under-served or unserved markets, Breeze needs to keep showing growth in load factor. [caption id="attachment_89632" align="aligncenter" width="640"] US DoT; AirInsight[/caption] Breeze added its 50th A220, the picture at the top of this story. These airplanes must be kept busy, and the new routes are part of that. Markets and opportunities must be identified without attracting attention from the majors, particularly Southwest, but also, and perhaps especially, Allegiant, Frontier, and Spirit. The following table shows the amount of activity Breeze has generated. It is building its footprint and will eventually attract the attention of its competitors. [caption id="attachment_89631" align="aligncenter" width="425"] US DoT; AirInsight[/caption] Breeze needs to avoid aggressive competition. This chart shows the relative size of the US airline industry in two operational dimensions. [caption id="attachment_89633" align="aligncenter" width="640"] US DoT; AirInsight[/caption] The line highlights Breeze's brief history. Although it has grown fast, it is still tiny—the second smallest airline on the chart. Tinier Avelo follows the same playbook as Breeze: identify niche markets and move quickly. Nimbleness is crucial for the survival of this business. Avelo flies older airplanes (cheap) that are less fuel-efficient. Breeze has state-of-the-art airplanes (expensive) with excellent fuel burn and corner-to-corner range. This range capability gives Breeze more latitude in finding and connecting markets. For example, Breeze announced some longish routes from San Diego (one of the corners). Avelo cannot match these, but Southwest can. Fleet The A220 is an effective tool for Breeze. Look at its ASM history. As it took deliveries of new A220s, it rapidly moved away from the Embraer. Breeze's CEO has spoken about adding long-range tanks to allow the airplane to fly much further. This signals awareness of the limits within the US market. The obvious next steps are Canada and Mexico. Mr. Neeleman has an unusual fondness for Brazil (where he started Azul). [caption id="attachment_89635" align="aligncenter" width="640"] US DoT; AirInsight[/caption] As pointed out, the A220's range is an advantage that widens Breeze's scope of opportunities. The following chart illustrates this well. The A220 excels in fuel burn numbers. [caption id="attachment_89636" align="aligncenter" width="497"] US DoT; AirInsight[/caption] The A220 has impacted fuel burn even as it has extended the fleet's reach. How does this compare to the rest of the industry? Breeze uses the highlighted model for most of its flights, and the table shows the US industry fuel burn for single-aisle aircraft. [caption id="attachment_89637" align="aligncenter" width="456"] US DoT; AirInsight[/caption] Here's a data nugget: While the A220-300 fleet's average fuel burn is 76.4, Breeze's average is 85.5. Breeze ~ has 12% better economics, a valuable and welcome margin for a small airline. Here's a table showing how US airlines operate these aircraft. [caption id="attachment_89638" align="aligncenter" width="331"] US DoT; AirInsight[/caption] Breeze operates the A220-300 like its competition and gets better fuel burn. Next is the average stage length for these airlines using the A220-300. [caption id="attachment_89646" align="aligncenter" width="394"] US DoT; AirInsight[/caption] No airline is taking this airplane beyond one-third of its range capability. Incredibly, US airlines fly single-aisle models at an average stage length of 991 miles, so there's still a lot of range to exploit. However, Breeze can only do this in self-sufficient markets in O&D terms. Breeze has no network feed, and every market it serves needs enough traffic to sustain the route. It's challenging to analyze and find markets that competitors have overlooked. Summary Breeze appears to be doing several things well. Its operations look competitive. The key is how clever its network planners are at discovering market opportunities. The ability to find markets and pivot rapidly—nimbleness—will ensure continued success. Of course, the airline will grow, and as it grows, nimbleness will decrease. Then, there will be a host of new challenges.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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