Premium 2018.5 – The remarkable Embraer E2 program

Embraer has its E2 flying to Singapore for the show. We first saw it in Paris last year, after its trip across the Atlantic. That ferry trip was its 16th flight, which says a lot about company and crew confidence taking a test aircraft on a trip like that. Here is a picture from the rollout event. The E2 program successes are, in our view, under-reported. For example, when last has an OEM before been able to make the following claims about an aircraft program? Ahead of schedule Better than economic spec At design weight On budget Embraer has hit every one of its flight test targets. Every single one. This may be unprecedented in the industry. Embraer advises us that the E190-E2 certification is coming “in weeks”. They further claim it has proved to be “the most environmentally friendly aircraft in the segment by a significant margin [low fuel burn and noise footprint].” Embraer also proudly claims the E190-E2 is the quietest aircraft in the segment (no doubt mostly due to the P&W GTF) and that it also has the “lowest operating and maintenance cost” in its segment. In terms of EIS, the E2 program requires only two and a half days for pilot transition training. A major selling point of the E2 will be its much better range than the first generation E-Jets. This is an increasingly important feature for OEMs. Just last week WOW from Iceland staring flying their new A321neo from Reykjavik to California. The airline noted the seat mile costs on the A321neo are lower than on its A330-200 which are also used on these routes. Boeing has touted the 787 range as a primary benefit in opening new markets. Therefore, it makes sense that there is a focus on the range. Embraer follows the same path as Airbus and Boeing – saying the E2 can “travel to underserved/unserved markets”. This “hub-busting” concept was first put forward by Boeing when talking about the 787. Smaller aircraft are able to serve markets more frequently at lower cost, but also can open new markets at lower risk. This “new market” concept is one being chased most aggressively by LCCs. We see Norwegian and its 787s and MAX jets doing just that. Primera is coming along too. WOW, as mentioned, is also in the vanguard. What enables the E2 to accomplish the better than expected range? We might suggest the GTF engines. Embraer claims the E190-E2 achieved 1.3% fuel burn consumption better than the spec, resulting in total improvement of 17.3 % over the E190. On longer sectors total fuel burn improvement can be as high as 18.5%. Due to those efficiencies, maximum range increased to 2,880NM. Which markets are being eyed for the E2? The improved performance has Embraer looking at London City where the range improvement has gone from 1,000NM on the E190 to 2,200NM on the E190-E2. (Embraer E-Jets dominate LCY with 43% of all movements) That is a 120% improvement. From Mexico City, the E190 manages 1,000NM while the E190-E2 can reach out to 1,600NM, a 60% improvement. Embraer notes this improvement came from “The improvement beyond the spec came from work on the aircraft, weight control (on target), flap/slat optimization during the flight test campaign, drag reduction on key elements for take-off performance (landing gear) and the fly-by-wire.“ But Embraer is clearly looking way beyond those two is offered as examples. Embraer is in hot competition with Bombardier for the “crossover jet” market. The 100-150 seat market suddenly has become very competitive. So much so, that the big duopoly is chasing these programs. Consequently, everywhere you see Bombardier making a pitch, Embraer is in hot pursuit, and vice versa. Embraer provided us with a guide to their maintenance schedule compared to other aircraft. The E2 is expected to see a 33% improvement in maintenance schedule over the first generation E-Jets. Embraer also expects the E2 to have an 18% longer period between MRO visits than the C Series. Indeed, Embraer sees the E2 as having longer periods in service between MRO visits than the MAX or NEO. In summary, the Embraer E2 program looks to be a polished and effective competitor to Bombardier and the current small models from the big duopoly. Both the new crossover jets are much more efficient than the current Airbus and Boeing models in service below 150 seats.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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