Supply Chain Recovery: Engine Data Signals Progress

After years of delivery delays, the aircraft supply chain finally shows signs of recovery — and our data proves it. Engines are the critical pacing item. Without them, there would be no first flight — and no deliveries. That’s why our tracker focuses on the daily pulse of Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, and COMAC. You can monitor our tracker here. There are four pages with a lot of information. Here's why we think the supply chain is getting stronger, especially the engine OEMs. You cannot have a first flight without engines. The chart below is current through September 18, 2025. The dip is to be expected as it does not report a full year. [caption id="attachment_109324" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] The summer slowdown is clear — but September’s rebound suggests the recovery has momentum. [caption id="attachment_109325" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] But consider that Airbus is working as fast as it can to meet a steep delivery target. Then add a Boeing production that is continually hitting its monthly rate limit. Just with Boeing at these levels means 2025 will be a lot better than 2024. Now let's look at the duopoly, which accounts for 95% of the industry's deliveries—first, a chart showing the history for perspective. Airbus still leads Boeing on volume, but Boeing is quietly closing its delivery gap compared to recent years. [caption id="attachment_109326" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Now a chart showing 2025. Notice the differences in volumes for the two OEMs. Airbus is at roughly double Boeing's volume. [caption id="attachment_109327" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Now let's go deeper. Notice that even though Airbus is twice Boeing's rate, it has been behind its rate from the past few years. Boeing, on the other hand, is doing better than in the past few years. [caption id="attachment_109329" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Here's another way to see the curves. Boeing's improvement jumps out. It is also clear that with most Airbus production being single-aisle (88.4%), engine delays have a significant impact. By comparison, single aisles are 74.1% of 2025 YTD first flights at Boeing. [caption id="attachment_109330" align="aligncenter" width="580"] ArInsight[/caption] So how can we demonstrate there's a supply chain improvement? The following table shows this. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury recently flagged engines as the pacing item. The numbers back him up — but also show the bottleneck easing. Here we can see why it's the case. [caption id="attachment_109336" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Since July, CFM has delivered engines at a faster rate than Pratt & Whitney. We believe this to be a key issue that gives Airbus the confidence it has in meeting that 820 delivery number. Here's another data point that supports our view. Average delivery days have been declining through September. [caption id="attachment_109342" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Take a look at this table. The pent-up deliveries for LEAP-powered single-aisles improved substantially in September. Clearly, CFM is helping to move gliders to deliveries, handily out-delivering GTF-powered models. [caption id="attachment_109344" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] The story isn't just about CFM, though. Pratt & Whitney seems to have pulled out all the stops to deliver to Airbus faster. Pratt & Whitney faces not just new delivery pressure at Airbus; it has hundreds of AOGs to support. CFM does not have this distraction and can solve delivery challenges faster. [caption id="attachment_109346" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Conclusion The supply chain is not fully healed, but a critical bottleneck is easing. With engine makers catching up, Airbus and Boeing both enter the final stretch of 2025 with stronger odds of meeting their targets. In the single-aisle segment, engines have been identified as the pacing item in delivery delays. Both engine makers have had to work through challenges. The data suggests both have seen improved capacity over the year. This improvement is now closer to pacing Airbus production than it has been for some time. Airbus still faces a challenging target. But the principal pacing item, engines, seems to be improving. By the way, yesterday, Air Lease Chairman Steve Hazy spoke at the Aviation Club UK. He is reported to have commented on delays to new aircraft deliveries, saying that the situation is getting better. He reckons that production caps at Boeing have helped, as it has allowed the production system to stabilize.

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