Transactions through November 2018

Another month has gone, and we have updated data. Here's where we stood at the month end. Of the big for OEMs, Airbus has seen the closet number of deals YTD compared to last year In the single-aisle market, Boeing is running 7.8% behind on the 800NG/MAX8 in 2018 compared to 2017. This despite a rate rise shows the impact of slow engine deliveries. On the 900/MAX9 we see an improvement in 2018 over 2017 though. The Airbus equivalents see the A320ceo/neo up nearly 17% in 2018 compared to 2017. Here there has obviously ben a big engine catchup. The A320neo is 14.4% ahead of the MAX8 in transactions YTD. For Airbus the A321 continues to shine - 2017 YTD the 737-900 was trounced by the A321ceo by 6.4:1 in transactions. This year it's by 5.4:1, but throw in the MAX9 and A321neo and the ratio is 7:1. Airbus is cleaning up in the segment. This has to be of growing concern to Boeing whose NMA must see the market shrinking. Next the widebody segment. This has been Boeing's stronghold. That said, the Boeing story is all 787, especially the 787-9 which is slightly ahead of last year. But sum the 787 models and we see 2018 is slightly down (-8%) on last year, 128 to 139. This is not commonly noted in the trade press. Note the precipitous decline in 777-300ER transactions. The 777X program is facing urgency to fill that gap, and the first model of that series has just been powered up. Looking at Airbus we see the first A330neo was delivered - late, but delivered. We were in the FAL last week and saw two A330ceos while all the rest were A330neos. Aircraft are coming to TAP and Azul soon. Also Delta. The A330 program has slowed as it transitions - 125 in 2017 YTD compared to 105 2018 YTD (-15.2%). Airbus has a lot riding on the A330neo and must hasten its production and also sharpen its pens to conclude more deals. In terms of the A350, last year saw a flurry of activity to complete and deliver aircraft. This year we note YTD the program is slightly ahead: 72:76. The new A350-1000 has seen 13 deliveries this year. There has been some concern in the market that the A330neo will impinge on A350 deals - Airbus is not concerned. As they state as long as the deal has an "A" in front of the number, and not a "B". While Boeing has seen the widebody segment as a stronghold, it is worth noting that (among the listed models in the chart) Boeing has 133 transactions, Airbus has 192. Including freighters and military versions of the widebody segment Boeing is ahead 331:228 (31.1%). But whereas Airbus is down 6.2% YTD, Boeing is down 19.3% in transactions. Again, not something that one sees reported. Airbus is having a tough year, and so is Boeing in its own way. Next the regional OEMs. Bombardier and Embraer have had a tough year. The former has been selling off its programs to be left with one commercial aircraft family. The latter is waiting to get its deal with Boeing squared away. There isn't much to add to this other than the market driver, the United States, has not been a big buyer this year. We suspect that is because of the impact of the A220-100 and E190-E2 are being evaluated. If these aircraft prove to be as good as they promise, we might see majors taking over the key regional routes with 100-seaters and leave the regionals with even less attractive markets. In summary 2018 remains behind 2017 YTD. Airlines and lessors are holding back this year.

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