Transactions through October

Here is our monthly update on aviation deals. Business really has started to slow down. Last month we were down about 12% YTD and now we see about 18% down YTD. Airbus has formally added the A220 line to its count - something we've been doing for some months now. This provides Airbus with 24 extra deals YTD. A319 deals remain quite active and several times greater than the Boeing equivalent. The swing from A320ceo to A320neo continues apace. A320ceo deals are down 24% while A320neo deals are up 26%. A321ceo deals are down 38% while A321neo deals are up 283%. Boeing 737-800 deals are down 43% while MAX8 deals are up 110%. The 737-900 program may be on the wane, but MAX9 is growing. Comparing the 737-800 and MAX8 YTD for 2018 we have 577 deals, which compares to 581 for both versions of the A320. The next table compares the A321 and its Boeing equivalents for two key customer types. It is remarkable how well the A321 is doing and therefore how critical it is for Airbus to fix the production problems in Hamburg as soon as possible. Looking at widebodies, Airbus continues to lag behind Boeing. Essentially the A330 program has slowed a lot. Delays in the A330neo are hurting more than Airbus admits so far. The A350 program is also going slower this year than has been reported - 17% behind last year. Perhaps Rolls-Royce is more vulnerable than is known? Customers seem very pleased with the A350. Boeing is having a roaring year with the 787. But the data shows deals at 22% less this year than last. The slowdown is in the -9 version. There is also a big drop off in 777-800ER deals - Boeing is surely eager to get their 777X moving faster to close the bridge. The regional market is struggling this year. Bombardier and Embraer are down across the board. Their largest market is the USA and the regional markets is far slower now. Potential disruption may be coming in the form of the A220 - Delta will be using it to replace CRJ900 services. This will put pressure on American and United to better match that aircraft. This is potentially good news for Embraer. Note JetBlue has also decided to move to the A220 from the E-190. Since many regional fleet decisions seem to be coming from the majors, the two OEMs in this market face some challenges until the dust clears. As noted above, 2018 is slowing markedly. The next chart shows this more clearly on a month by month basis. 2018 has been slower in seven of ten months. Where do we see focus this year compared to last? The table shows the top ten models attracting attention for key customer types. Notice that Bombardier and Embraer don't get a showing.

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