Airbus is holding its 2026 delivery guidance and left the heavy lifting to 4Q26. To get there, it needs 281 deliveries based on our tracking. Also, about €3.0bn of EBIT Adjusted, and about €5.8bn of free cash flow in the last three months. That is our math, and it is a lot for one quarter.
Here’s a chart from our tracker with data through yesterday. The gap to 870 requires a very steep climb.
The Nine Months
Revenue was €50.6bn, up 7%. EBIT Adjusted was €4,495m against €4,146m a year ago, and reported EBIT was €4,550m. Net income was €3,587m and reported EPS was €4.54. Free cash flow before customer financing was -€1,268m, against -€914m in 9M25.
Last year’s fourth quarter was 286 deliveries. The ask is 13% more, from a company whose third quarter fell to 196 from 201. We’ve been questioning this target achievability all year. The slow start lost so much momentum.
Who Made the Money
Not the commercial airplane business. Defence and Space lifted EBIT Adjusted to €672m from €420m. Commercial aircraft rose to €3,362m from €3,270m, up 3% on 8% higher revenue and 7.9% more deliveries. Helicopters fell to €445m from €495m. By our math the commercial margin slipped to about 9.2% from 9.6%, with Airbus pointing to higher R&D and a less favorable hedge rate. Group EBIT Adjusted rose 8%. Defence did the work.
Third-quarter figures, by subtracting the H1 release, look like this: revenue of about €17.4bn, which is light against the €18.1bn forecast we saw on Marketscreener, and reported EBIT of €1,805m against a €1,809m forecast. That forecast was unlabeled, so treat the comparison as indicative. Net income came in at €1,344m against €1,283m. The release also carries €235m of charges for integrating the former Spirit AeroSystems work packages, €112m of them in 3Q26.
The Cash
Free cash flow in 3Q26 was about -€102m, by our math. Airbus blames working capital, “the inventory build-up linked to the back-end loaded delivery profile”. In plain language: it has built aircraft it hasn’t handed over. Gross cash fell to €21.9bn from €27.2bn at year-end, and net cash to €7.0bn from €12.2bn. The release doesn’t bridge a €5.2bn drop in net cash against free cash flow of -€1.1bn.
The €4.5bn guide needs the parked airplanes to move, and to be paid for, before December 31. Airbus did a back-loaded year in 2025, with 136 deliveries in December alone. This one needs a bigger swing. And, just to note there’s this thing called ‘contractual delivery’ which does not mean ‘actual delivery.’ We look for actual delivery as reality. But then, we’re not accountants.
Hill 281
By family, the 547 deliveries are 68 A220s, 428 A320 Family, 13 A330s and 38 A350s. The A320 Family ran at about 48 a month, and the whole company averaged 61. In 4Q26 the whole company has to average 108.
The release is silent on how the 281 deliveries happen. It says nothing about the engine shortages that Reuters cites, the A321neo component quality problem, or the roughly 20 aircraft that reportedly slipped from 3Q26 into 4Q26. It also says nothing about the A330, where deliveries are down about 35% YTD after the tool found in a tail plane. Faury says: “Our plan is clear, and our teams are onboard to meet our objectives.” Lars Wagner told Reuters in October he was “very confident”.
Note this wording. Airbus says around 870. It still gives no band. We have been working with 850 to 890 as the informal range, and our seasonal estimate puts the year near 856. Maybe. In our fourth-quarter math, December had to deliver about 160 against the 136 record from 2025. Nothing in this release makes that easier.
Orders Don’t Matter Here
Gross orders were 1,174 (610 in 9M25) and net orders 1,105 after 69 cancellations. The backlog is 9,310 commercial aircraft. Airbus reaffirmed an A320 Family rate of 70 to 75 a month by the end of 2027, stabilizing at 75, with the A220 at 13 in 2028, the A350 at 12 in 2028 and the A330 at 5 in 2029. The rate story is unchanged. The delivery story is all 4Q26.
What We Don’t Have
How many finished aircraft are waiting for engines. Whether Airbus would accept 856. Whether the cash guide survives a December that comes in at 140.
For context, here’s our WIP estimate as of last night. Interestingly, Airbus made it clear at a recent event that Rolls-Royce is not a pacing item for widebodies.
Plan, meet December.
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