Airbus, Boeing Face Engine Bottlenecks in Deliveries

Airbus has been vocal that engines are the main pacing event in single-aisle deliveries. Boeing has said nothing; they have one supplier, and that supplier is a partner in the MAX program, not a vendor. What does the data show for single-aisle deliveries YTD? OEM Score The overall picture for single-aisles across the four OEMs is as follows. These are aircraft that have made a first flight, but have not been delivered. We define these as inventory in our model, page four. Given the engine shortage, adding the "gliders" increases inventory. [caption id="attachment_98907" align="aligncenter" width="553"] AirInsight[/caption] The key numbers to watch are GTF and LEAP. We see the LEAP number is far higher than for GTF, driven by the 737 MAX. If we assume ~$50 million per single aisle, the duopoly is sitting on $8.7 billion in pre-delivery inventory. The $50 million may be low, since most Airbus models are A321s. Airbus Breaking down the Airbus inventory, according to our definition, we see the engine split is close to even. The key difference here is the GTF being favored by A321 customers. The A220 is GTF exclusive, and if Airbus can keep the recent delivery momentum on this model, GTF demand will keep rising. At a pre-airshow briefing, Christian Scherer explained that the LEAP shortages for Airbus were SAFRAN-driven, as engines for Airbus are sourced locally. MAX engines come from GE's facilities in the US. Therefore, the rise in MAX deliveries played no part in LEAP shortages for Airbus. The GTF situation is explained by Pratt & Whitney's juggling new engine deliveries to Airbus and operators (MRO and airlines) simultaneously. Its recent opening of a new facility in Asheville is an attempt to catch up with demand. We attended a site visit pre-airshow, and Rick Deurloo was at pains to reassure the media that his team is increasing deliveries as it also starts to push out fixes for the GTFs. [caption id="attachment_98910" align="aligncenter" width="553"] AirInsight[/caption] Boeing Here, there's no GTF vs. LEAP competition. The oversized ticket item is MAX 8 inventory. This is due to grounding and politics with a focus on China. The Chinese are now taking their parked aircraft, but it takes time to prepare them for delivery. India has been a steady outlet for parked aircraft. But that may slow down now as Akasa, a notable beneficiary of parked inventory, starts to take delivery of new MAX 8-200s. The sole-700 is an unfortunate orphan. It is the first Wedgetail ordered by the USAF, and that has now been cancelled. Boeing has not stated any plans for the aircraft; the USAF could still take it as a passenger airplane. The MAX 7 and 10 situation is well-known and an ongoing source of frustration to Boeing and its customers. [caption id="attachment_98915" align="aligncenter" width="559"] AirInsight[/caption] Summary The engine supply situation is from both engine makers. Both face a daunting demand. Whereas the GTF ran into durability issues early on, the LEAP is now catching up. Like Pratt & Whitney, CFM will address and solve the problems. It just takes time, with each solution needing to be tested rigorously. Then comes the most challenging part, certification. Meanwhile, customers clamor for their delayed deliveries.

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