Next generation aircraft – what Airbus and Boeing need |

In a recent interview, Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury indicated that the company is moving forward with their next generation aircraft, a new narrow-body replacement. Airbus plans milestones of engine selection in 2027, offering the aircraft in 2030, and entry into service about 2037. Boeing’s CEO Kelly Orterg indicated that the company is also studying replacements, but market readiness, technology readiness, and financial readiness all need to be positive to introduce a new airplane. As a result, and Boeing’s continuing turnaround, the company is unlikely to announce anything regarding a next generation aircraft in the near term. The Next Generation Aircraft Before 2040, we’ll have new aircraft in service from both of the major OEMs, as both the A320neo family and 737 MAX will become technology obsolete. The A320 family first entered service in 1989 and the 737 in 1967, so both programs are based on dated designs. It is a given that commercial aircraft programs have a long production life, so we can expect the next generation aircraft to remain in production through about 2060 and in service until 2080. That means that the next few years will be critical for the design and what that next generation of commercial aircraft will entail. Let’s put our 2050 thinking caps on and examine what will be needed in the next generation aircraft. The Environmental Imperative will Drive Performance With the aviation industry forecast to double over the next two decades, environmental pressures will continue to increase with the impacts of climate change. The industry cannot double and at the same time reduce carbon footprints without dramatic improvement in carbon usage and efficiency. If flights double, then carbon output must be halved to simply stay at today’s level, which is already viewed by environmentalists as unsustainable. The industry needs to go well beyond simply remaining at today's level, likely to a 75% reduction over today's levels by 2050. That will be extremely difficult to achieve, as a number of constraints face the industry. Whether you are a climate skeptic or an environmental activist, the frequency of extreme weather incidents has increased in recent years, and aviation is always a target of the environmental community. Engine Technology has Historically Driven Performance Engine technology has driven aviation’s environmental performance in recent years, making remarkable progress over the last few decades. But the latest generation of engines illustrates that the trade-offs between performance and reliability have leaned toward the former that have come at the expense of the latter. Reliability and supply-chain issues have constrained industry growth. The problem is that level of a drop-off, around 50%, is impossible to accomplish on engine technology improvements alone. While concepts such as CFM’s RISE, the Rolls-Royce Ultra Fan, and Pratt & Whitney’s GTF Advantage provide strong promise, their improvements aren’t at the 50% plus level that the industry really needs to meet environmental goals. It appears that the next generation of engines will be hard pressed to provide more than a 25% gain while retaining strong reliability. The LEAP and GTF achieved a step-function increase over their predecessor V2500 and CFM-56. There may be several step by step improvements with the next generation of engines as technologies evolve and are proven. While the most difficult technical issues will likely be solved, those solutions may come one at a time, and spread over a decade rather than fully ready at entry into service. Continuous improvements are likely to be introduced with multiple improvements over time. Given that neither the GTF nor LEAP have been problem free, can we expect the follow-on programs from CFM and PW, along with a new program from Rolls Royce, to be any different? The pressure on engine manufacturers to improve performance is pushing trade-offs on reliability, materials, manufacturing processes, and cost. While engines will contribute significantly to performance improvements, they aren’t going to provide the impact needed to fully halve emissions. Sustainable Aviation Fuel is Promising but Also Problematic Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is a bio-derived or synthetic alternative to conventional jet fuel, offering up to 80% lifecycle CO? reduction. SAF is derived from used cooking oil, agricultural waste, municipal solid waste, or power-to-liquid (“PtL) via renewal energy. Global SAF production in 2024 was 300 million liters, about 0,1% of total jet fuel use, and would need to rise to 400-500 million tonnes by 2050. Unfortunately, there are major barriers that will likely cause the industry to fall short of its goals. SAF is high cost, three to five times more than conventional jet fuel. Feedstock availability is limited, and competition with food, land-use concerns, and biodiversity issues need to be solved for widespread adoption. Technical issues remain with PtL moving from the laboratory to commercial scale, and $1 to $2 trillion will be needed in investment by 2050 to meet demand. A recent report from the Royal Society in the UK indicates that SAF could supply only a fraction of 2050 demand without a breakthrough. As a result, emission trading and offsets may be a necessary expense for airlines in the future. Materials Technology Materials technology will have a significant impact on the next generation aircraft. Advancements in the strength to weight ratio of composite materials will have an impact on reducing aircraft weight, albeit often being more expensive than metal aircraft. We would expect a composite fuselage and structures, introduced on larger aircraft, to migrate downward to smaller models that will replace current narrow-body aircraft. While a combination of nanotechnology and quantum physics provide ways to improve the strength to weight ratio of composites by a factor of six over today’s materials, bringing down costs and implementing new manufacturing processes stand as potential barriers that will need to be overcome. While nano-composites may be the future, they are not ready for commercialization in a regulated environment today. Full certification of new materials can take a decade. While more advanced composites should be available before designs freeze in the 2032 time frame, their cost and availability may remain prohibitive. Aerodynamics Aerodynamics is one area in which progress can and is being made. We’ve spent the last 100 years using a tube and wing design for aircraft. Today, as shown by the B-2 bomber, blended wing designs are technically feasible and provide significant benefits - particularly a significant improvement in fuel economy. Have we seen the last tube and wing aircraft design and will OEMs leverage the benefits of more advanced aerodynamics in their next design? We do know that three US based companies are pushing the development of blended wing body aircraft. JetZero appears to be the most advanced, with a full-sized prototype currently scheduled for first flight in 2027, thanks to a DoD contract and leveraging the results of more than $1 billion in NASA funded research. [caption id="attachment_91065" align="aligncenter" width="640"] image: JetZero[/caption] Outbound is proposing both a business jet and airliner concepts. Their business jet concept is not a full “all-wing” aircraft, but optimizes trade-offs between interior size and performance. [caption id="attachment_91526" align="aligncenter" width="640"] source: Outbound[/caption] Natilus is designing a 200 seat airliner, as well as a short-haul 3.8 ton cargo aircraft in it’s portfolio. [caption id="attachment_91527" align="aligncenter" width="640"] source: Natilus[/caption] While each of the start-ups have significant challenges to overcome, they are optimistic about the chance to innovate their next generation aircraft via aerodynamics and design. Innovation and Risk Both Airbus and Boeing have shown potential blended wing designs, but do not appear ready to push for a major change in their next generation aircraft designs today. But that could change as the reality of environmental requirements are introduced that could change the economics of the industry as we know it. Boeing was pursuing a supercritical wing design, but has placed that program on pause. Airbus does not appear to be focused on blended wing designs in the latest concepts we’ve heard about from airlines. With three start-ups pursuing blended wing concepts, the duopoly players may be waiting to see who will succeed and who will fail. If the concept works well, the larger players could go after the new entrants in acquisitions, and participate with new technology alternative without taking excess risks. Of course, the “no more moon shots” mandate at Boeing in the wake of the 787’s disastrous cost overruns still haunts the company as it is rebuilding its culture. Similarly, the fallout from the market failure of the A380 as technology for smaller aircraft rendered it economically obsolete sill haunts Airbus, who appear to be risk averse until customers tell them otherwise, as shown in the development of the A350 and rejection of their initial concept. The Bottom Line There are a number of factors that will be needed in the next generation aircraft. While progress has been made with engines, materials, and fuel, the one area that hasn’t been fully exploited is aerodynamics. The launch of blended-wing-body aircraft could provide a 20-25% benefit over today’s aircraft just from aerodynamic improvements. Combined with improvements in engines, materials, and alternative fuels, this may be the necessary component if the industry is to maintain its current level of emissions into a future with projected high growth. Without the improvements from advanced aerodynamics, it is difficult to see a scenario in which the industry will not emerge with significantly higher costs due to emissions training. While the output from aviation is much lower than for automobiles, it is highly visible and a ready target for environmentalists given the outsized emissions when compared with other means of transportation. If the smaller start-ups prove the benefits, Airbus and Boeing will have little choice but to adopt new aerodynamic designs for their next generation of aircraft.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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