Traffic Data Confirms Widebody Replacement Paths |

With the September T-100 traffic data updated and during our model updates, we noticed something interesting. The chart below lists passenger traffic by average stage length for traffic between the United States and overseas markets. We filtered for aircraft types and created this chart. Four areas of interest guide us on replacements: The A330-300 and the A330-900 are in the same circle. This suggests that the -300 is being replaced by the -900 - exactly as one would expect. The A330-200 is something of an orphan, as the A330-800 has not caught on. The 777-200 is being replaced by the 787-9 - again, no surprise. The only switch among US carriers is Delta moving from 777s to A350s. That move was unusual. Next, the A350-900 and 777-300 share the same range mission profiles. There's a larger 777 fleet, and as the A350 fleet grows, its traffic will catch up. The A350-1000 looks like the replacement for the A380—also, not a shocker, but good to see the data. The interesting item here is that Delta's first -1000 should be assembled in 2026 and possibly delivered in that year, too. Then there's United's ancient A350 order and no news about it. [caption id="attachment_161104" align="aligncenter" width="580"] US DOT T-100; AirInsight[/caption] The fact that none of these replacements is a surprise is comforting. It means that rational choices are being made. The forthcoming 777-9 will clearly impact the A380/A350-1000 arena. But that is a long time coming. Nonetheless, LATAM is among the airlines looking at this. An area of interest is the bottom-left quadrant, where we see 767s and the 787-8 and -10. As the older models age out, Boeing has two models to Airbus's one. How that plays out will be very interesting.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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