Here’s the updated model.
- The A321neo continues to be the most ordered and delivered model. The gap between the A320 and A321 is growing. The market continues to signal its preference, and there’s still only one option open to lessors and airlines. In short, Airbus must be coining it on the A321neo. Alternatively, this has to be the least discounted model Airbus sells.
- Deliveries YTD have been slow and point to just over ~500 for 2023 at current rates. There has to be a significant increase to reach the goals. January saw 18; February saw 42 and March 56. There has been acceleration – but even more is needed. The monthly average needs to be ~60. Airbus has FALs in Europe (2), China, Canada and the US. They need to step us deliveries.
Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.