image: centsai.com
Summer travel season is here, and airports are packed. The U.S. travel industry has been watching international arrivals warily. Will the tariffs have an impact, and if so, how significant will it be? Here is the latest data from May for reference.
Let’s review some key regions.
Europe
- The red arrow indicates that there are more flights than in the same period last year. Traffic shows no real growth, though.
- The two yellow highlights show lower load factors and a rather severe reaction at the start of the year.
- The UK shows fewer flights, but consistent loads compared to last year. UK traffic declined less this year than in the same period the previous year.
- France shows more flights but weaker load factors. Germany also exhibits the same trends, with May showing a net decrease of 109,000 travelers compared to 72,000 for France.
Asia
- There are slightly more flights than in the previous year.
- Load factors also appear stronger this year than they did previously.
- China remains a robust market; both flights and traffic numbers are holding up well.
- Japan is also robust and performing better than it did the previous year.
- India is proving to be the weak link, with fewer flights and significantly lower load factors.
Latin America
- There are fewer flights this year, but load factors look robust.
- Argentina has seen a decline in the number of flights, but has maintained good load factors.
- Brazil has seen an increase in flights and steady load factors.
- Chile follows a similar pattern to Argentina.
Canada
- Canada is the largest international travel market for the US. The friction between the governments is having an impact.
- Canadian arrivals are below 2023 levels. Canadian departures are also showing weakness.
- Net passenger traffic has a remarkably stable pattern; May 2025 looks weaker than usual.
Summary
Looking at four key markets, the overall picture is mixed. Canada seems to be the most sensitive and has reacted accordingly. Europe shows soft patches (Italy looks good). Asia travel seems the least impacted by the tariffs. Latin America also appears to be taking tariffs in its stride.
The data for September is likely to show a more accurate reflection of reactions to tariffs. Because tariffs seem to fluctuate, travelers seem to find a way to make it work. The impact at the retail level may not be that significant.
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