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US Airlines – Traffic & Load Factor Outlook

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With the T-100 sources updated, here’s our look at the history through 1Q26 and a five-year outlook.

Note the impact of the COVID pandemic and the near V recovery – remember how everyone hoped for a ‘swoosh’ recovery?  Turns out the fantasy V recovery was closer to what happened.

Despite anecdotal chatter about ‘every flight feels full,’ the data does not support this.  Load factors began to soften late last year, and passenger and flight counts have declined, too. The load factor forecast looks optimistic.

Page two allows readers to view the data by airline.

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