Nigeria’s JetA Supply Threatens Airlines

Today, the Nigerian Federal Government convened an emergency summit with the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) and major energy marketers. The goal was simple but daunting: find a way to lower the price of Jet A1 fuel before the country’s domestic fleet simply stopped flying.

300% Turbulence

The crisis didn’t happen overnight, but its escalation is awkward. In late February 2026, aviation fuel was trading at approximately N900 per liter. By mid-April, that price had rocketed to an eye-watering N3,300 per liter. For an industry where fuel typically accounts for 40% of operating costs, this 266% surge turned profit margins into craters.

The AON had already issued a grim ultimatum: without immediate intervention, they would be forced to suspend nationwide operations. Moreover, Nigeria’s government has an unsettling history with airlines. 

The Conflict: Artificial vs. Actual

The meeting exposes a bitter divide between those who operate aircraft and those who fill the tanks. The AON, led by President Abdulmunaf Sarina, labeled the price hikes “astronomical and artificial,” accusing marketers of profiteering from global instability.

Across the table, the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) pointed toward a perfect storm of external factors:

• The Middle East Crisis: Geopolitical tensions near the Strait of Hormuz—the transit point for 70% of Africa’s kerosene supplies—had sent global premiums soaring.
• Currency Volatility: With the Naira fluctuating, the cost of importing refined Jet A1 has become a moving target that few can hit.
• Logistics Bottlenecks: Inefficiencies in local distribution have added a “structural premium,” making Nigerian jet fuel 17% more expensive than the global average.

The Human Cost

While bureaucrats and CEOs argue over numbers, the impact is already being felt. In Lagos and Abuja, travelers face a “ticket lottery.” Fares that used to cost N100,000 for a one-way domestic trip are doubling, or flights are simply vanishing from the schedule without notice.

The Minister of Aviation, Festus Keyamo, finds himself in a delicate balancing act. In a letter to the operators, he urged “restraint,” acknowledging the airlines’ financial hemorrhaging while pleading with them not to pass the full cost onto a public already grappling with inflation.

“Any immediate upward adjustment would impose significant hardship,” Keyamo warned. “It would disrupt critical mobility and erode public confidence in our national reforms.”

Searching for Stability

The government’s proposed “emergency flight plan” includes several short-term levers:

1. Special FX Windows: Providing airlines with a dedicated exchange rate to settle fuel debts.
2. Import Liberalization: Speeding up licenses for airlines to import their own fuel, bypassing some of the middleman markups.
3. The “Dangote Factor”: All eyes remain on domestic refining capacity. The long-term hope is that local production can finally decouple Nigeria’s aviation sector from the volatile whims of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Nigerian Paradox

The paradox of Nigeria’s fuel crisis is that this oil-rich country does produce its own Jet A1, but lacks the structural and economic infrastructure to satisfy domestic demand without imports. As of April 2026, the situation is a complex mix of new production coming online and old refineries failing to restart.

Here is the breakdown of why Nigeria is struggling to bridge the gap:

The “NNPC Gap”: State Refineries are Offline

• Despite billions of dollars spent on “Turn Around Maintenance,” Nigeria’s three major state-owned refineries—Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna—remain largely non-functional for aviation fuel.
• As of mid-April 2026, the NNPC has “kicked the refinery restarts into the long grass,” indicating there is no fixed timeframe for these assets to return to full service.
• Operational Shifts: The NNPC is currently pivoting toward a model of partnering with private firms with “track records” to run the refineries, rather than managing the technical operations themselves.

The Dangote Paradox: Production vs. Pricing

• The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is producing Jet A1. However, being a private entity in a deregulated market, its production does not automatically mean cheaper fuel for Nigeria’s airlines.
• Global Benchmarking: The refinery prices its Jet A1 against international market rates. In April 2026, Dangote’s ex-gantry price was approximately N1,879 per liter—only slightly lower than the international indicative cost of N1,900.
• Monopolistic Pressure: Critics argue the market is behaving like a “monopolist industry tethered to global shocks.” Even with local production, if global crude prices or insurance costs rise due to geopolitical tensions (such as current disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz), local prices will follow.

Logistical Structural Premiums

• Even when fuel is produced at the Lekki Free Zone (Dangote), getting it to airports in Abuja or Kano is expensive.
• Distribution Costs: Nigeria lacks a robust pipeline network for white products (jet fuel and diesel). Fuel must be trucked across the country, adding significant “bridging” costs. As mentioned above, Nigeria’s roads are not the optimal way to do this.
• Storage Inefficiency: While the country has about 74 days of national sufficiency in stock, much of that is tied up in refinery storage rather than airport storage, creating bottlenecks that markets exploit.

Foreign Exchange and Deregulation

• Aviation fuel in Nigeria is fully deregulated. This means the government does not subsidize the price.
• The Naira Factor: Since many components of refining and distribution are priced in USD, the Naira’s volatility continues to drive up the final pump price.
• Import Reliance: Because local production hasn’t yet reached a surplus state that forces competitive domestic pricing, Nigeria remains 70-90% exposed to the global supply chain, where any Middle Eastern conflict immediately spikes the cost at the Lagos tarmac.

The Outlook

The meeting ended with a fragile truce – airlines agreed to hold off on a total shutdown, provided the government delivers on pricing transparency and logistical support within the week.

However, the “Zero-Flight” threat still looms. In a country where the rail network is still developing, and road travel is marred by security concerns, aviation is not a luxury—it is an economic necessity. If the jet fuel supply runs dry, the consequences will be felt in every sector, from tech to trade.

For now, the commercial aircraft are still operating.  But everyone is watching jet fuel supplies with bated breath.

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About The Author

Addison Schonland Partner

Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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