oil barrel
Significant news from Cuba over the past 24 hours. The trickle-down impact of US-Venezuela friction is spreading across the Caribbean. The impact goes far beyond the “Gulf of America”.
The Crisis – Scale and Timeline
NOTAMs were issued February 8, 2026: Jet fuel unavailable at nine airports across Cuba from February 10 through March 11, 2026. This includes José Martà International Airport in Havana. It affects all aviation fuel (Jet A-1) commercially. The first delivery disruption is expected at midnight on February 9-10.
The Geopolitical Trigger
On January 3, 2026, US military forces attacked Caracas, resulting in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. This severed Cuba’s primary oil supply. Then, on January 29, 2026, President Donald Trump signed an executive order threatening tariffs for countries providing fuel to Cuba. The order imposes tariffs on “any country that directly or indirectly sells or otherwise provides any oil to Cuba.”
The Supply Chain Breakdown
Pre-crisis Cuba’s oil sources were –
- Venezuela: 33% of Cuba’s oil imports (now: zero)
- Mexico: 44% of Cuba’s oil imports (suspended as of February 9)
- Russia: ~10%
- Algeria: Small amounts
Cuba needs an estimated 100,000 barrels of crude oil daily. On January 30, Cuba had just 15 to 20 days of oil left, according to data company Kpler. No new oil shipments have been delivered since December 2025.
Airline Responses – Suspending Service
- Air Canada: First to cancel, suspending ~16 weekly flights from Toronto and Montreal to four Cuban destinations
- WestJet & Air Transat: Winding down services starting February 10, ferrying empty aircraft to bring home ~3,000 passengers already on the island
Continuing Operations
- Rossiya (Aeroflot subsidiary) says it will continue to operate flights to Cuba, making additional technical stops as required. Possibly using the Sal Island, previously popular with SAA when its aircraft could make JNB-JFK nonstop. But there are other closer airports, such as the Bahamas and Bermuda.
- Other carriers: Probably tankering fuel. All flights into and out of Cuba will likely be closely monitored by US authorities. There will almost certainly be repercussions.
- Regional carriers: Refueling in Cancún, Mexico, or the Dominican Republic
Tourism Collapses
At least eight hotels in major tourist destinations closed, with guests relocated to other resorts. Tourism generated €2.5 billion annually pre-crisis, and 2025 saw an 18% drop in visitors from 2024. Given that tourism is a big employer, this blow has serious consequences for social unrest across Cuba. Such an outcome may be exactly what the US administration wants.
US Military Enforcement tightens the screws
On February 9, 2026, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said US military forces boarded a sanctioned tanker in the Indian Ocean after tracking the ship from the Caribbean as part of an oil quarantine meant to squeeze Venezuela. “I don’t care if we got to go around the globe to get them, we’re going to get them,” he said. This pressure virtually ensures no oil tanker will approach Cuba for fear of the US Navy.
There has been a limited international response to the humanitarian crisis. China offered an $81 million financial package and 60,000 tons of rice. Mexico sent two Navy vessels carrying 800 tons of humanitarian aid. From the US: $5.95 million in humanitarian aid via the Catholic Church, but Cuba criticized it as politically opportunistic.
Aviation Industry Impact
There are operational complications. Airlines must tanker fuel (adding weight and reducing payload/range). As mentioned above about Sal, Bermuda, and the Bahamas, technical stops are required for long-haul flights. Other tech stop options include Cancún and the Dominican Republic. But each of these locations has to be wary of the bigger picture. Helping Canadian carriers will be seen very differently from helping long-haul routes from Russia.
The uncertainty of the duration of this impact is a wild card. While the NOTAM specifies March 11 as the end date, Cuba’s dwindling oil reserves suggest the crisis could extend as US pressure persists. And we should expect that pressure to continue. As noted, the initial Mexican support has withered. No other regional support is on offer, and it’s easy to understand why.
Bottom line
Cuba’s aviation sector faces a potential complete shutdown if the fuel crisis extends beyond March. The country’s tourism-dependent economy cannot survive without air connectivity, creating extreme pressure for either diplomatic resolution or regime change—exactly what the Trump administration appears to be pursuing.
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