Tracking OEM deliveries; the example of United Airlines

United Airlines is among the world's largest airlines. It is also amid an aggressive felt update, taking models from both OEMs. This makes it a helpful litmus test for how the OEMs are doing. OEM performance also guides how the overall supply chain is doing. As always, let's start with data and charts. The table lists deliveries to United Airlines by model and year. The number of deliveries added to the fleet is substantial, particularly from 2020. In 2023, we see Boeing doing an impressive catch-up. The 2025 data is through April 1st. [caption id="attachment_90662" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] With that backdrop, how have the OEMs been doing? As we have shown several times, the pandemic's impact continues today. Here is more graphic evidence. The chart lists delivery days by model or United's deliveries. [caption id="attachment_90663" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] Boeing's tribulations are plain to see. The MAX and 787 encountered delivery challenges, and United's exposure to both manifestly harmed United's network planning. How do we know this? Besides the obvious trends in the chart, you might recall United's CEO's visit to Toulouse to acquire more A321neos. Let's examine the chart above to see what transpired in 2024. The 787-9 saw a marked improvement in delivery days. The MAX program saw hiccups, though. It appears Boeing got a handle on the program, and by year's end, delivery rates improved but did not match earlier rates. [caption id="attachment_90664" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] Note also that Airbus operated at a relatively stable rate below 30 days for the year's first half. Then as the summer faded, so did the delivery rate. However, Airbus got a handle on it in November and brought it back down to close to earlier rates. The Airbus and Boeing single-aisle programs experienced delays from August. This signals that the supply chain could not handle the delivery rates. We consider Airbus's plan for a rate of 65 this year ambitious. Several attendees shared this sentiment at a recent industry conference. All the same, Airbus has accelerated production faster than expected already. Here's the chart for the 1Q25. The improvement late in 2024 remained intact, except for the MAX 8. [caption id="attachment_90665" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] Airbus' industrialization remains more robust than that of Boeing. That is to be expected since the supply chain leaned towards Airbus as Boeing experienced many production delays and a strike. The strike and its associated disruptions are over. We expect to see Boeing continue to push deliveries as fast as possible. This will be supported by the supply chain moving back towards Boeing. The table below lists the average delivery days in 2024 and 1Q25 for United Airlines by model. [caption id="attachment_90667" align="aligncenter" width="495"] AirInsight[/caption] There are generally better numbers for 2025. Ideally, we want to see average days below 30. United is a key customer for both OEMs. It is sufficiently large that it commands attention like few other airlines. That means United's influence stretches back deep into the supply chain - nobody wants to offend United. Yet even United Airlines cannot force the supply chain to deliver faster. Moreover, the FAA is a wildcard, impacting Boeing deliveries. News of a MAX wing issue is not helpful. United Airlines is a helpful benchmark that provides insight into how both OEMs manage their industrialization as the supply chain tries to recover. Things are getting better, but it is a slow process. And unexpected issues like the MAX wing item should be anticipated.

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