This post follows up on the earlier post about Airbus. Demand for new aircraft remains firm, and backlogs are growing, even for Boeing. Boeing operates in the same environment as Airbus. However, it is fair to state that the disruption of the supply chain outside the pandemic lies at Boeing's door. Boeing ended 2024 on an upswing, which will be watched closely. Thousands of jobs on the line across the globe need this upswing to continue and even accelerate. Let's start with charts. Our tally for Boeing deliveries for the year is 341, against Boeing's target of 415. Boeing should publish its numbers in about a week. The chart started in 2010, the start of the MAX program. [caption id="attachment_89141" align="aligncenter" width="816"] AirInsight[/caption] The chart displays deliveries using the blue columns. The pink line shows the days between the first flight and the delivery date. Ideally, the columns rise, and the line declines. A declining line means the OEM successfully executes its work and grows efficiently. The chart does not show this. Boeing's "delivery days" started well, but disruptions, like the MAX grounding, threw off any industrial efficiencies. By 2022, Boeing had improved significantly on this metric, and 2023 saw further improvement. However, the Alaska door blowout occurred early last year, and the trend again went out of sync. It should be noted that before 2019, Boeing was competitive with Airbus regarding "delivery days. The following chart provides helpful context. It wasn't just the MAX program that went off the rails. The 787 program also ran into trouble. [caption id="attachment_89142" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] Bear in mind these delivery day spikes mean more than just delayed deliveries. Production without delivery means rising inventory and the associated costs. It is a double whammy. Then again, look at how quickly Boeing recovered. Your team has to be very good to pivot that quickly. This also shows that Boeing's brand remained strong enough that customers didn't walk away en masse. There may have been incentives, such as sharper pricing and offsets, to ensure that, but customers stuck it out. Looking back at 2024 for Boeing, we see this. [caption id="attachment_89143" align="aligncenter" width="917"] AirInsight[/caption] The first half of the year followed a consistent pattern. Production then grew faster than deliveries, and output accelerated significantly from November. We estimate the strike impact cost Boeing about 40 deliveries. Boeing's production capacity can recover quickly. This capacity will be crucial in 2025, as Boeing has set aggressive targets. Top Ten Customers When we examine the data to determine the Top Ten Customers in 2024, we see the following: The two dashed lines are the respective averages. [caption id="attachment_89147" align="aligncenter" width="922"] AirInsight[/caption] The top three customers are in the bottom right quadrant. As one would expect, they have the quickest deliveries. The Y-axis jumps to high numbers because of the extended delays in MAX deliveries. For example, Boeing's first 2025 delivery was a MAX, over 2,100 days since its first flight. Air India Express is prominent because it initially took "older" MAXs destined for Chinese airlines. While this might be seen negatively, we suggest that, in reality, it has worked out well for the airline and Boeing. The airlines in the top left quadrant are Chinese, and by now, it's obvious why they are there. There have been few deliveries to China, and we estimate ~50 MAXs in inventory are for Chinese airlines. In the bottom left quadrant, we see three critical customers getting deliveries. However, delivery volume is low. One of Boeing's recurring critics is Michael O'Leary. The following chart shows how Ryanair deliveries were in 2024 compared with the other two of the top three customers. [caption id="attachment_89146" align="aligncenter" width="664"] AirInsight[/caption] He does not have too much to complain about. Boeing delivers its aircraft as quickly as possible, with Ryanair rating better than its peer group. For perspective, we offer two charts, one for single-aisle and the other for twin-aisle. Single-Aisle [caption id="attachment_89149" align="aligncenter" width="925"] AirInsight[/caption] An essential item is that the airlines below the average day curve are primarily in the Americas, with Ryanair the only outlier. Boeing's MAX customer base is heavily biased towards North America. It will be interesting to see if this is an advantage in the longer term. Boeing's ability to win Air India Express and Akasa in India was excellent for moving aging MAXs from inventory. Together, these two customers help blunt Airbus's advantage with IndiGo. Twin-Aisle [caption id="attachment_89150" align="aligncenter" width="919"] AirInsight[/caption] This segment has long been Boeing's strength. We note big names but low delivery volumes—the lack of the 777 shows. One neat item is to see Hawaiian Airlines show up, a conversion from Airbus. Now that Hawaiian is part of Alaska Airlines, we can expect more 787 orders as A330s are retired from passenger service. Conclusion Boeing's recovery in terms of production and delivery remains fragile. Moreover, its dependence on North American customers helps for now. Recovering Chinese customers is crucial. We understand Boeing is moving resources away from China to India. This makes sense on the one hand, but it also sends a signal, and this is not lost on China. As with Airbus, watching delivery days is an important metric. Industrial fumbles are quickly identified and could mean big news.
