Boeing's January numbers are in, and they look pretty good: 107 orders and 46 deliveries. Our model gives Boeing's history since January 2000. To update readers on our duopoly model. We combined Airbus and Boeing data from January 2000 onward into a single SQL dataset. This is cleaner and enables better data integrity. It's also easier for us to work with. The model shows Boeing continues to recover from its past few years, shall we call it the 'Calhoun Era? Whenever one discusses Boeing, it is important to mention Airbus for context. So let's get that done now, with this table reflecting the industry's state as of this morning. The table makes it clear that, to date, Boeing has been doing relatively better than Airbus. As we noted, Airbus had an awful January. [caption id="attachment_189150" align="aligncenter" width="389"] AirInsight[/caption] The key driver for Boeing is growing MAX deliveries from production rather than from inventory. As the order book shows, the MAX and 787 have strong followings. Delta's 787 order is the January flagship event. The table offers an important metric: YTD FF, an abbreviation for YTD first flights. Boeing is on a tear. Last year, they also had an excellent January but slowed down as the year progressed. What are Boeing's biggest challenges? Certifying the MAX 10 (but the MAX 7 will be first) and the 777-9. The MAX 10 is crucial, as it is the only way Boeing can start to eat away at the mountain that is the A321 backlog. At this early stage, our data suggests that Boeing easily meet 2026 production and delivery metrics. MAX 8-200 fuel efficiency However, there is a ray of sunshine that we confirmed from two independent sources: the US DOT data and Skailark's data. The MAX 8-200 fuel burn/seat essentially matches the A321neo. Considering that few airlines exploit the A321's longer range, the fuel/seat metric becomes more important. We wonder how long it will be before Southwest moves to this model? Allegiant has done so, and its DOT data was the first look we got at that aircraft's excellent fuel efficiency.
